FO Film Study from December 2013: Brady in decline.

[patsinthesnow]

2nd half of last season
2519 yards
65%
16 TD
5 INT (1 was Vereen dropping it into the defender)
99.1 QB Rating.

/endthread

 

[JMC00]

2nd half of last season
2519 yards
65%
16 TD
5 INT (1 was Vereen dropping it into the defender, 1 should have never happened against Carolina, and 1 was on last throw of the Miami game which had Amendola held onto a previous throw never happens and he has 1 more TD)
99.1 QB Rating.

After remembering some more on the 2nd half of the season. Fixed.

 

[Deus Irae]

That's a very disappointing article. Football Outsiders is usually better than this.

 

[Kontradiction]

That's a very disappointing article. Football Outsiders is usually better than this.

Yeah, it's definitely flawed and they could have expanded it much more. I do agree with them that some of Brady's decisions were poor last season, but I don't think you can get to the conclusion that he's in decline just yet because of them. Proper mechanics are pretty difficult to maintain for a pocket passer when said pocket passer can't step up into the pocket because the center and RG are getting bulldozed.

 

[TBR]

This doesn't mean anything.

A shaky o-line, rookie WRs, and 5'11 slot WRs playing as deep threats doesn't help at all.

 

[juny]

hopefully with a healthy receiving core, another year of building chemistry with the wrs, and improved OL play, there won't be another article like this at the end of this upcoming season. but due to the listed factors, brady did make more mental mistakes than we are accustomed to seeing.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Is Brady still in his physical prime? No. He may have a bit slower reaction times.

Is Brady still in his playing/production prime and able to produce at a high-level? Absolutely.

He was hamstrung last year without Gronk, flux on the o-line, and injuries at WR. Vereen being hurt and I'm sure with Ridley having fumbling issues put TB in some unfavorable play calls.

He was excellent last year and should be a 62% 4k yrds 25TD QB next year which is still pretty damn good.

 

[Bledsoehasaring]

Before Randy Moss, Tom Brady was never a stats qb. His greatness was defined by his ability to win. Last year despite his lack of weapons we all saw brady showcase that same ability numerous times in clutch situation (saints, broncos, Texans) He still performs when it matters most and that really is the quality that has defined his career. Tom Brady with the exception of a few years is more like aikman than manning, but his umatched ability to raise to the occasion time and time again is what makes him one of if not the greatest qbs of all time. Analyzing his play from a statistical standpoint is the same reason why the pats got him at spot 199 in the draft and the reason why we have been to 5 super bowls and won three. And from that standpoint I think this article is off base.

 

[letekro]

Disagree with the entire premise. Brady has NEVER been a good deep ball or touch passer. His strengths are now and have always been accuracy and velocity when throwing in the short zones and down the seam.

The one thing that he has lost, however, is the ability to make plays with his feet, either running or extending plays. Looking back at the Snow Bowl for example, he made multiple, game-changing plays with his feet, where now he would just take a knee.

 

[Tunescribe]

Disagree with the entire premise. Brady has NEVER been a good deep ball or touch passer.

I think he's good as any when he has capable WRs who are on the same page with him. I recall multiple times when he hit the likes of Branch and Moss with bombs in stride. Brady can get the ball out there accurately with someone to catch it.

 

[PatsDeb]

Last year he took a while to get on the same page as the guys he was paired (cough cough, stuck) with, and we never had a deep threat. I'm too lazy to read the article, but did they factor in when he had a healthy Amendola for one game (game 1) and a healthy Gronk for a couple more, he was on fire? Probably not. I'll take Brady "in decline" over anyone else.

Can't wait for the snow to be gone from my front yard, or the season to start. Go Pats!!

 

[HarvardBruin]

I think it as evident in watching Brady this past year that his accuracy took a dip. I totally understand that some of it can be attributed to a lack of chemistry with his receivers, but Brady still missed a good deal of relatively easy throws relative to previous seasons.

The question is which of those two things we can attribute that accuracy dip to more: the lack of chemistry with WRs or a real decline in Brady's skills. Given that we'll have continuity at the WR position heading into this year, we'll be able to make a more concrete determination regarding that question following the '14-'15 season. As of now, I'd prefer to reserve my judgment.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

More than ever, like Larry Bird used to do, Brady needs to work on a couple facets of his game this off season and pre season. Accuracy dropped a bit. I attribute some of this to a lack of focus perhaps as he let the mental frustration of his Keystone Kops receiver squad's mis-cues get to him. Decision making also had more notable lapses than we're used to from him although we remember some notable bonehead decisions like in Miami ~ a decade ago.

If it's age related loss of basic reaction time behind these, then we're in for even more of the same this year. Gisele may need to go for a younger guy. I'm reserving judgement until I've seen him play half a season.

 

[Danger Zone]

Interesting. Before last year I was talking about his decline, and got jumped on.

Let's hope the D, running game, and effective red zone targets give Brady the sort of cushion Elway had at the end.

Just keep saying it year after year and one of these times, you'll be right.

(And sooner than later I'm afraid)

As far as the deep ball goes. It could certainly be Brady, but I'd guess the numbers get skewed by having to throw to RBs and prototypical slot receivers and that his more traditional deep-ball receivers were all rookies.

Out of curiosity, how many of those deep balls to Gronk did he miss?

 

[Kontradiction]

Yeah, it's definitely flawed and they could have expanded it much more. I do agree with them that some of Brady's decisions were poor last season, but I don't think you can get to the conclusion that he's in decline just yet because of them. Proper mechanics are pretty difficult to maintain for a pocket passer when said pocket passer can't step up into the pocket because the center and RG are getting bulldozed.

Well the team just re-signed Wendell so, unless they have plans on drafting a center, the "proper mechanics" thing in the face of A-Gap pressure may have to wait.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

I think he's good as any when he has capable WRs who are on the same page with him. I recall multiple times when he hit the likes of Branch and Moss with bombs in stride. Brady can get the ball out there accurately with someone to catch it.

Branch in his prime did get some decent separation.

Randy moss is a bit unfair because that's like saying I can hit a target with a hand-grenade. Though, his recent set of receivers makes hitting the long ball more akin to the biathalon. The receivers catch radius is so extremely small that it requires a way above average throw.

I would think he's more average on deep balls, but there's nobody like him in that short game. Even Steve young used to marvel at his accuracy.

 

[DocHoliday]

One thing Id wish he'd do was be more willing to allow deep throw INTs.

He almost always overthrows and it looks to me he tries too hard to put it somewhere only the receiver can get it.

If you're gonna throw a low percentage throw then at least trust the receiver to stop an INT. On the other hand, it could be that he doesn't think any of his smurfs can do that.

 

[Danger Zone]

...If you're gonna throw a low percentage throw then at least trust the receiver to stop an INT. On the other hand, it could be that he doesn't think any of his smurfs can do that.

Yup, that's exactly what I'm thinking.

I believe Moss was the last receiver that Brady trusted to do this. And we know Moss did exactly this because sometimes he wasn't very subtle about it. I still remember him smiling after breaking up an Int or two.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I think Kontra covered it pretty well

If you do a film study of Brady on a team with an injury debilitated under-performing OL, with an injury slowed Amendola, without Gronkowski, not to mention the lack of an alternative pass cathching TE option, without a deep threat WR, and with Defenses keying on Edelman...

Guess what?

The "evidence" is going to suggest that Brady is on a decline

Now, the fact is at his age he may in fact BE on the decline. But you can't draw any real conclusions based on all the above circumstance

 

[All22PatsFan]

I think Kontra covered it pretty well

If you do a film study of Brady on a team with an injury debilitated under-performing OL, with an injury slowed Amendola, without Gronkowski, not to mention the lack of an alternative pass cathching TE option, without a deep threat WR, and with Defenses keying on Edelman...

Guess what?

The "evidence" is going to suggest that Brady is on a decline

Now, the fact is at his age he may in fact BE on the decline. But you can't draw any real conclusions based on all the above circumstance

Brady missed Dobson on a lot of deep throws.