I think that Mac is the last chance for Belichick.

[Ian]

You truly think based on Kraft's comments over the last couple years if Bill doesn't at least get to the post season this year then he's gone? Not asking in an antagonistic way just truly curious what bar you think Bill has to clear to be the coach again next year?

It likely depends on the context. If it's a team that fights tooth and nail and doesn't constantly sabotage itself and just simply falls victim to ridiculously good competition while also showing improvement over last year, he's probably fine. But if they're a mess and have a lot of the same issues and there's whispers about the coaching internally, like there were last year and they end up just above or below .500, it might be a different story.

I think the latter is unlikely. I think Jones will play better, and he's capable of being maybe not great but good enough. If he doesn't turn it over and can repeat a lot of the success scoring points as he did down the stretch last year, he'll be fine. They're built to win with their defense, with the offense hopefully handling its end of the deal this time around.

 

[TomPatriot]

Agree. It's unreasonable to think this offense can keep up with the top offenses in the league. Improving the D is paramount.

We all think this, but it was 6th in points and 15th in yards in 2021 with a bit less talent and a rookie QB. I’m a little more optimistic this year.

 

[203Pat]

It likely depends on the context. If it's a team that fights tooth and nail and doesn't constantly sabotage itself and just simply falls victim to ridiculously good competition while also showing improvement over last year, he's probably fine. But if they're a mess and have a lot of the same issues and there's whispers about the coaching internally, like there were last year and they end up just above or below .500, it might be a different story.

I think the latter is unlikely. I think Jones will play better, and he's capable of being maybe not great but good enough. If he doesn't turn it over and can repeat a lot of the success scoring points as he did down the stretch last year, he'll be fine. They're built to win with their defense, with the offense hopefully handling its end of the deal this time around.

Since we're all just going with our intuition and our biases, barring a total collapse of the team in terms of leadership/morale/direction I think Bill will leave when Bill decides to leave. I don't at all think that Bill is one playoff miss away from being fired. I don't think Kraft is at all ready to take the heat of firing Bill for missing the playoffs, regardless of what he's said about being disappointed by recent performances.

I can see if the team shows promising and ends up winning 9-10 games and just missing the playoff that there is a chance Bill is back but I think a lot of it will hinge on Mac. If Mac is costing the team wins and looks closer to what he did last year and the defense carries the team to post season contention I would think it is clear that Mac isn't the guy. Is Kraft going to give Bill a chance to pick the next guy and potentially start the process over again at 73 years old? Obviously these are all hypothetical situations and I know if Kraft had his way Bill would break Shula's record here but I really don't know if Bill is back if they aren't in the playoffs or if Mac doesn't take a big leap.

 

[crawhammer]

Belichick must do all he can to support BOB and Mac over the next 3-4 years.

3-4 years????? Neither Mac nor Belichick are lasting 3-4 more years. Not with the way this offense has been constructed. Belichick is coaching 2 or 3 more seasons tops and that's if Kraft doesn't push him out sooner. Two more seasons of 8 or 9 wins and Belichick has to go. Or if the team bottoms out next season with 6 or fewer wins then bye bye Billy.

Mac is just not that good. Not terrible. But mediocre. He needs an all star supporting cast around him to max out his ceiling (which isn't that high anyway) and that's not what he's been given. There's a new OC, that's great, BOB will have a favorable impact. However, the offensive personnel isn't that much different from last season (when it was inadequate to support a QB of Mac's caliber). Mac's most reliable WR (Meyers) is out, as well as Agholor, and they have been replaced with FA JuJu and Thornton moving into a bigger role (the WR4 spot).

Since becoming a starter, over a 17 game season, Meyers gives you 82-916-4 with a catch percentage of 68%. Is JuJu bettering those numbers? Not with the CB1 on him and Mac as his QB.

Over a 17 game season, Agholor gives you 37-458-3 with a catch percentage of 58%. From what I've seen of Thornton, he'd be lucky to reach those numbers.

Gesicki, although he became the forgotten man in Miami's offense, should be a definite upgrade over Jonnu (who abysmally failed in NE).

I don't think the Patriots will miss Damien Harris too much because of the emergence of Stevenson who should be a highly productive workhorse in our offense. Harris however I think will be a great addition in Buffalo but that's another topic.

Bottom line, your 3-4 year window is too large. Belichick's window is probably 3 years max (with everything going really well) but more likely 2 years (of 8 win seasons). We'll see if Mac even gets through 2023 as the starter. By 2025 I predict we'll be onto a new quarterback.

 

[upstater1]

Without good QB play as we've been the beneficiary of for 19 seasons.. a franchise isn't going anywhere. Mac has had 2 seasons now and was establishing himself.

I don't believe this at all.

Super Bowl history of the last 20 years tells us that you can win with mediocre or even bad QBs. Everyone brings up Trent Dilfer, but there are a lot of Nick Foles, Jack Delhomme, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Colin Kaepernick, Rex Grossman, Matt Hasselbeck, Brad Johnson, etc. Sure Brady and Mahomes are Super Bowl regulars. But you don't need a stellar QB to get there or even to win one.

Great QBs help you a lot. Don't get me wrong.

But they are very hard to find and there is no point in expending all your resources to find one like the rest of the teams in our division who have gone looking for a great QB over and over and over again to the detriment of their team.

 

[upstater1]

I don't know how some people think Bill can keep trotting out 8 win teams each year and keep this job. At this point his wagon his hitched to Mac and if Mac flames out this year I think Bill is gone. Kraft has pretty much said Bill is running out of time and we need to start winning in the post season.

A sure way to make this franchise into a perennial doormat. This team is built in Belichick's style. All the talent aquisition of the last several years is geared toward Belichick's system. Either you don't believe in Belichick or you do. It's a test of faith. How much about football do the Krafts know that makes them think the coach is the problem? Because I look at our players and I see 5 wins at best under a new coach. That's not to say that the coach can't build them into a contender after several years, but we will go thirsty in the wilderness if this happens.

Kraft doesn't give me any confidence whatsoever that he knows what he's doing when it comes to football. He knows the franchise. But Belichick is the best thing that ever happened to him.

If Kraft fires Belichick, we start all over with a new GM.

Belichick would go on to coach somewhere else.

 

[Real fan 02]

I don't believe this at all.

Super Bowl history of the last 20 years tells us that you can win with mediocre or even bad QBs. Everyone brings up Trent Dilfer, but there are a lot of Nick Foles, Jack Delhomme, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Colin Kaepernick, Rex Grossman, Matt Hasselbeck, Brad Johnson, etc. Sure Brady and Mahomes are Super Bowl regulars. But you don't need a stellar QB to get there or even to win one.

Great QBs help you a lot. Don't get me wrong.

But they are very hard to find and there is no point in expending all your resources to find one like the rest of the teams in our division who have gone looking for a great QB over and over and over again to the detriment of their team.

I'll agree, however those qbs you mentioned all played well enough to out thier respective teams in position. Folks torched us, and delhomne lit us up in the second half of that superbowl.. I totally get what your saying..

However good QB play doesn't mean he's the most talented QB however you need adequate play at that position especially this era of NFL play. # 12 was the most physically talented QB but he more often than not made QB play that was conducive to winning. That's more of what I was trying to express. You don't need to be Allen with the cannon arm to win.. just solid play with the defense and special teams to also play thier parts.

 

[203Pat]

A sure way to make this franchise into a perennial doormat. This team is built in Belichick's style. All the talent aquisition of the last several years is geared toward Belichick's system. Either you don't believe in Belichick or you do. It's a test of faith. How much about football do the Krafts know that makes them think the coach is the problem? Because I look at our players and I see 5 wins at best under a new coach. That's not to say that the coach can't build them into a contender after several years, but we will go thirsty in the wilderness if this happens.

Kraft doesn't give me any confidence whatsoever that he knows what he's doing when it comes to football. He knows the franchise. But Belichick is the best thing that ever happened to him.

If Kraft fires Belichick, we start all over with a new GM.

Belichick would go on to coach somewhere else.

I agree it would be a full tear down but this is a roster that Bill has built and the holes in it are due to Bill's drafting and free agent signings. People seem to think Bill will retire and pick his successor but that really isn't Bill's call to make and while I agree Bill knows infinitely more about football than Kraft but the coach knowing more than the owner is the case in all 32 franchises. After last season I have been ready to move on from Bill and based on Kraft sending a letter to season ticket holders promising change he seems to be anxious for better results as well. My issue with Bill is he is still constructing a roster like he has Brady. Brady could take this crop of pass catchers and get 4000 yards and 30+ touchdowns with his eyes closed but Brady is the greatest of all time and Mac is a third year QB with his third OC. Mac needs help and Bill doesn't seem to value the receiver position and it looks like Bill wants to try and play 2001 football. Pedestrian offense with a strong defense and that just doesn't win games anymore.

 

[Ian]

Mac is just not that good. Not terrible. But mediocre.

You posted a list of actual "mediocre" quarterbacks a while ago. Mac was significantly better than all of them.

He's a middle of the pack QB, who demonstrated during his rookie year and over the course of the final few games what he's capable of. Again, I keep going to that first half against the Bills as being an example of what he could be, which I think most of us would be fine with. The only real question is whether or not with a better coordinator and improved talent if he can do it for 17 games. And at the same time, I expect them to continue drafting players moving forward to either push him, or potentially replace him.

But for 2023, he's who we've got, and I think most of us are more curious to see how it goes rather than expecting (or seemingly rooting for in some cases) the worst. As for mediocre, again, you posted names previously who fall into that category. Mac isn't one of them.

 

[Steve102]

You posted a list of actual "mediocre" quarterbacks a while ago. Mac was significantly better than all of them.

He's a middle of the pack QB, who demonstrated during his rookie year and over the course of the final few games what he's capable of. Again, I keep going to that first half against the Bills as being an example of what he could be, which I think most of us would be fine with. The only real question is whether or not with a better coordinator and improved talent whether or not he can do it for 17 games. And at the same time, I expect them to continue drafting players moving forward to either push him, or potentially replace him.

But for 2023, he's who we've got, and I think most of us are more curious to see how it goes rather than expecting (or seemingly rooting for in some cases) the worst. As for mediocre, again, you posted names previously who fall into that category. Mac isn't one of them.

He uses that word because it's passive aggressive code for "your guy sucks and will never win" without saying it. He's already condemning draft picks before they even get to Foxboro.

 

[upstater1]

I agree it would be a full tear down but this is a roster that Bill has built and the holes in it are due to Bill's drafting and free agent signings. People seem to think Bill will retire and pick his successor but that really isn't Bill's call to make and while I agree Bill knows infinitely more about football than Kraft but the coach knowing more than the owner is the case in all 32 franchises. After last season I have been ready to move on from Bill and based on Kraft sending a letter to season ticket holders promising change he seems to be anxious for better results as well. My issue with Bill is he is still constructing a roster like he has Brady. Brady could take this crop of pass catchers and get 4000 yards and 30+ touchdowns with his eyes closed but Brady is the greatest of all time and Mac is a third year QB with his third OC. Mac needs help and Bill doesn't seem to value the receiver position and it looks like Bill wants to try and play 2001 football. Pedestrian offense with a strong defense and that just doesn't win games anymore.

We're at diverging views for a couple of basic reasons.

#1. I like Bill's drafting; I think he's at the very top of the league.

#2. The free agent miscues have little to no impact on this team. Agholor & Jonnu are gone. Those are non stories at this point. Judon is still here as is Mills and Bourne.

As for WRs, this is what I don't understand about Patriot fans. Do you really believe Belichick doesn't want a Tyreek Hill?

Of course he does. WRs are a rare asset in this league. You can't acquire one easily and if you do, it's going to cost you a #1 draft pick and $25m a year.

The trade of a #1 pick for Marquise Brown + a $20m+ contract just doesn't seem like good business to me. It is positively nutty.

 

[Bill Lee]

I can see if the team shows promising and ends up winning 9-10 games and just missing the playoff that there is a chance Bill is back but I think a lot of it will hinge on Mac. If Mac is costing the team wins and looks closer to what he did last year and the defense carries the team to post season contention I would think it is clear that Mac isn't the guy. Is Kraft going to give Bill a chance to pick the next guy and potentially start the process over again at 73 years old? Obviously these are all hypothetical situations and I know if Kraft had his way Bill would break Shula's record here but I really don't know if Bill is back if they aren't in the playoffs or if Mac doesn't take a big leap.

I see it really differently. You are suggesting there is a chance Bill is back, I'm gonna say Bill is back unless things go disastrously wrong.

If Bill is on such shaky ground, why isn't he gone already? He didn't make the playoffs last year, he made really bad decisions with regard to coaching, yet he's still in charge. There's not much of a difference between 71 and 72, especially to someone as old as Kraft.

Kraft's comments, March 27th:

“I’d like him to break Don Shula’s record, but I’m not looking for any of our players to get great stats,” Kraft said of Belichick. “We’re about winning and doing whatever we can to win. That’s what our focus is now. It’s very important to me that we make the playoffs. That’s what I hope happens next year.”

Still, even though the last few years of the post-Brady era have not necessarily been kind to the Patriots, Kraft still gave his longtime head coach an endorsement when it came to his personnel decisions.

“I think Bill is exceptional at what he does and I’ve given him the freedom to make the choices and do the things that need to be done,” Kraft said. “His football intellect and knowledge is unparalleled from what I’ve seen. Just when you talk to him, the small things analytically that he looks at.

“But in the end, this is a business. You either execute and win or you don’t. That’s where we’re at. I think we’re in a transition phase. I think we’ve made some moves this year that I personally am comfortable with and I still believe in Bill.”

Source: Here’s what Patriots owner Robert Kraft had to say about Bill Belichick’s future, the Matt Patricia 'experiment,’ and more

Kraft's comments, March 29th:

"Bill," Kraft observed with a grin, "has a unique way of doing things. It's worked out pretty well up to now. It doesn't sometimes look straight-line to our fans or to myself, but I'm results-oriented. I expect [the Patriots to contend for another title] as soon as this year. We've made the commitment as an organization, we have a lot of talent … there's a chance for them to grow and the team to come together.

"What's gone on in the AFC," Kraft allowed, "it looks like there's a higher number of top quarterbacks, but we really have to worry about our situation. Take care of our business. We have a chance. Because without a good coach and a good quarterback, no matter how good the other players are, I don't think you can win consistently. I believe we have both – an outstanding coach and a good, young prospect at quarterback ... This will be a good year."

Source: Kraft sets high expectations for 2022 Patriots

So he definitely is trying to set expectations that he wants/hopes/expects to be in the playoffs, but IMO he's not saying if BB misses the playoffs he's gone, he's being far too supportive of Bill for that to be the overall message. He says in each statement that he believes in Bill. Firing him just for missing the playoffs would be an admission that he himself misplaced his belief, which would be admitting he made a major error in judgement. IMO he'd be far more detached and distant if he was as close to firing Bill as you suggest he is.

 

[Rob0729]

I believe Belichick's fate is probably tied to Mac Jones and probably visa versa. I would assume that is why he changed his tone towards Mac this weekend and was actually complimentary to Jones.

If Jones succeeds and he and the offense are good, it will make Belichick look bad about what he did last year but will be most likely be forgivable in Kraft's eyes.

If Jones fails, Kraft could look to the way Belichick has handled him over the last two years (last year with Patricia and this year with not getting any him a top weapon) and determine that Belichick's way of doing things are no longer effective in today's NFL and decide to move on.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Belichick should plan to have Jones through his 5th year and perhaps a franchise year.

Mac is on a one year tryout. The 5th year option is now projected to be closer to $35M-40M. If he has another mediocre season, they will not pick that up.

I don't know how some people think Bill can keep trotting out 8 win teams each year and keep this job. At this point his wagon his hitched to Mac and if Mac flames out this year I think Bill is gone. Kraft has pretty much said Bill is running out of time and we need to start winning in the post season.

Regardless of who he won 6 titles with and on the verge of the most wins, it's a terrible look for an Owner to fire him where other Coaches around the league are lingering with their job. He's not going anywhere.

You truly think based on Kraft's comments over the last couple years if Bill doesn't at least get to the post season this year then he's gone? Not asking in an antagonistic way just truly curious what bar you think Bill has to clear to be the coach again next year?

As we've seen before, Kraft just talks to appease fans.

Is Kraft going to give Bill a chance to pick the next guy and potentially start the process over again at 73 years old?

Do you think he'd really want to clean house and have the uncertainty of the new coaching staff and front office at his age? He wants this to work with Bill.

 

[patfanken]

Tua is the weak spot for the fish, and I feel bad for him. He should be stepping into a coaching ole right now, and giving up on his playing dreams. He did serious damage to his long term well being last season, and if it happens again this season I think his career will be over. If so the fish will become a talented team with no QB, which is a death sentence in the AFC. And while right now it appears that the AFCE IS loaded at QB, it could be a very different landscape when 2025 rolls around.

"Death Sentence"....... No offense but you are definitively stating that a team without a true franchise QB can NOT compete. Then how do you explain Brock Purdy, or even Tom Brady circa 2001. Sorry but you hit a nerve. I CANNOT get past the idea that the success of a football team relies on ONE man.

There is no other team sport that relies LESS on the one man theory. Even the greatest QB can't do his job without a solid OL, good RB's and competent receivers. The supposed greatest QB playing today hasn't even BEEN to a superbowl in over a decade. How come Lamar Jackson has just ONE playoff win in the 5 years he's been in the league and is now "earn" the biggest QB contract in history. How come everyone is now raving about Justin Fields after he led Chicago to a THREE win season, while Mac is vilified after leading HIS team to an 8 win season.

Granted the QB IS the most important position on the offense. Not saying it isn't, but football is the ULTIMATE team game where everybody's success relies on how the 10 OTHER guys do their jobs. Otherwise how do you explain Brock Purdy?

 

[crawhammer]

You posted a list of actual "mediocre" quarterbacks a while ago. Mac was significantly better than all of them.

He's a middle of the pack QB, who demonstrated during his rookie year and over the course of the final few games what he's capable of. Again, I keep going to that first half against the Bills as being an example of what he could be, which I think most of us would be fine with. The only real question is whether or not with a better coordinator and improved talent if he can do it for 17 games. And at the same time, I expect them to continue drafting players moving forward to either push him, or potentially replace him.

But for 2023, he's who we've got, and I think most of us are more curious to see how it goes rather than expecting (or seemingly rooting for in some cases) the worst. As for mediocre, again, you posted names previously who fall into that category. Mac isn't one of them.

QB Tiers (excluding draft class)

Tier 1 (very best)

Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Joe Burrow

Tier 2 (still elite)

Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert
Jalen Hurts

Tier 3 (very good)

Aaron Rodgers (will have NYJ contending for the division)
Tua Tagovailoa (needs strong supporting cast which he has)
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Fields (projection for 2023... I think he'll be Tier 2 eventually)
Deshaun Watson (CPoY in 2023)
Kyler Murray
Geno Smith (will continue to thrive in that offense which got better in the draft)

Tier 4 (good)

Kirk Cousins (his numbers are actually more Tier 3)
Matthew Stafford
Jared Goff
Derek Carr (nice choice signing with the Saints)
Dak Prescott
Daniel Jones (has been a good QB other than with Judge)
Brock Purdy (iffy based on limited sample size he looked damn good in that stacked offense)

Tier 5 (mediocre to below average)

Russell Wilson (CPoY candidate #2)
Andy Dalton
Ryan Tannehill
Baker Mayfield
Mac Jones
Kenny Pickett (arrow is pointing up though)
Taylor Heinicke
Davis Mills

Tier 6 (bad)

Matt Ryan (retiring?)
Desmond Ridder
Sam Darnold
Zach Wilson

I'm not listing all of the ****ty backups.

Am I being unfair with Mac's placement?

 

[Bill Lee]

If Jones succeeds and he and the offense are good, it will make Belichick look bad about what he did last year but will be most likely be forgivable in Kraft's eyes.

If Jones fails, Kraft could look to the way Belichick has handled him over the last two years (last year with Patricia and this year with not getting any him a top weapon) and determine that Belichick's way of doing things are no longer effective in today's NFL and decide to move on.

I don't think it's anywhere as binary as that.

Mac's comps during the draft were QBs like Derek Carr and Chad Pennington.

If he tracks to that projection we're a borderline playoff team on a good year, and I think this is what Bill is telling Bob behind the scenes.

If Kraft decides BB's ways of doing things are no longer effective then he has to blow the entire thing up, since everyone in the building is trained to do things BB's way.

I have a hard time seeing that happen except if there is a total team collapse, and even then I think BB could talk Bob into a second chance.

 

[Bill Lee]

Mac is on a one year tryout. The 5th year option is now projected to be closer to $35M-40M. If he has another mediocre season, they will not pick that up.

I can definitely see that happening.

I can definitely see BB convincing himself he'd be better off with a more affordable QB and spending the $35M/$40M on other players, then talking Bob into seeing things that way.

Here's a quote from Kraft from the not-too-distant past about a QB he said he was a huge fan of:

I was just trying to stay ahead of the curve. If we were going to have to pay him elite-quarterback money and have elite-quarterback cap numbers, I just didn't think we would be able to build a team. We don't want to have a team where we're paying 18 to 20 percent to a player on the cap.

I think we can all guess the context...

As we've seen before, Kraft just talks to appease fans.

See above.

Do you think he'd really want to clean house and have the uncertainty of the new coaching staff and front office at his age? He wants this to work with Bill.

I have a hard time trying to project what Kraft's "Plan B" looks like, and to fire one guy you need to have a good idea of who you think can be his replacement.

 

[Boomer B]

I don't believe this at all.

Super Bowl history of the last 20 years tells us that you can win with mediocre or even bad QBs. Everyone brings up Trent Dilfer, but there are a lot of Nick Foles, Jack Delhomme, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Colin Kaepernick, Rex Grossman, Matt Hasselbeck, Brad Johnson, etc. Sure Brady and Mahomes are Super Bowl regulars. But you don't need a stellar QB to get there or even to win one.

Great QBs help you a lot. Don't get me wrong.

But they are very hard to find and there is no point in expending all your resources to find one like the rest of the teams in our division who have gone looking for a great QB over and over and over again to the detriment of their team.

You have to look at the strength of the conference though.

The 3 best teams in the AFC are lead by the 3 best QBs in the league: Mahomes, J. Allen, Burrow. Then you have other high end guys like Herbert, Rodgers, L. Jackson, Watson, Lawrence.

It’s gonna be hell to get by KC, Buffalo, and Cincy for the next 5 years or so in the AFC, and then after that you still have a bunch of high end QBs to deal with. We are gonna need to be able to score.

 

[Ian]

QB Tiers (excluding draft class)

Tier 1 (very best)

Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Joe Burrow

Tier 2 (still elite)

Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert
Jalen Hurts

Tier 3 (very good)

Aaron Rodgers (will have NYJ contending for the division)
Tua Tagovailoa (needs strong supporting cast which he has)
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Fields (projection for 2023... I think he'll be Tier 2 eventually)
Deshaun Watson (CPoY in 2023)
Kyler Murray
Geno Smith (will continue to thrive in that offense which got better in the draft)

Tier 4 (good)

Kirk Cousins (his numbers are actually more Tier 3)
Matthew Stafford
Jared Goff
Derek Carr (nice choice signing with the Saints)
Dak Prescott
Daniel Jones (has been a good QB other than with Judge)
Brock Purdy (iffy based on limited sample size he looked damn good in that stacked offense)

Tier 5 (mediocre to below average)

Russell Wilson (CPoY candidate #2)
Andy Dalton
Ryan Tannehill
Baker Mayfield
Mac Jones
Kenny Pickett (arrow is pointing up though)
Taylor Heinicke
Davis Mills

Tier 6 (bad)

Matt Ryan (retiring?)
Desmond Ridder
Sam Darnold
Zach Wilson

I'm not listing all of the ****ty backups.

Am I being unfair with Mac's placement?

The kid missed three games and still finished 17th in the league in completions:

You've got too many tiers designed to try and fit your argument. The numbers don't lie. He's a middle of the road QB - he's not "mediocre."