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Kind of like a Star Wars start, but it seemed fitting at the time, so I thought I'd open this year's chronicles with a quick look at what I see happening during the course of the season with a special emphasis on this year's opener. It won't be as long as usual, at least that's the way I'm thinking starting out, but who knows with me......And so it begins my 64th season of fandom. Who'da thunk
General thought:
I'm usually an optimist, especially before any games have been played. I REALLY think that this is going to be "a nice little team". A team that is going to be easy to root for. BUT it is not going to be good enough to overpower or simply out play opponents. But they ARE going to be able to win games if on that particular day, they are smarter, more disciplined, and mentally tougher than the other team It is going to be as simple as that. They are going to be IN most games going into the 4th quarter. I doubt we shall see, even with the "ouch" of a schedule, that we get more than 2 or 3 games where we will see any blow outs The defense is just too good for that to happen more than that.
Now, at this point, smart, disciplined and tough are adjectives that do not describe this team. We really won't know that until the middle of October after the REAL rust has been scraped off and we see how this team responds to adversity. But this is the kind of team we will NEED if we are going to contend for a playoff berth. That is the kind of team Bill always looks to build, and HAS most years.
When the Pats dynasty first started and the teams' records were usually better than the relative talent pool, when you compared them to others To do that however it will be up to the coaching staff to rebuild. Bill seemed to get a bit more out of HIS teams, because those guy believed in their souls that if they executed the respective game plans that they were given, they would win that game. Now some games were executed better than others. Sometimes injuries or just bad luck or calls occurred. But there WAS no questioning the game plans. They were just that good. This is the kind of trust that needs to happen if this team is going to have any success this year,
Now that isn't to say that as coaches mistakes won't be made. Of COURSE there will be. There will ALWAYS be calls and instant decisions that you want back. Coaches have 20-20 hindsight too. But with this club the coaches margin for error narrows because the perception, at least, will mostly be, the OTHER is better than yours. Bill, in the past, has has done that consistently for a couple of decades. And I opine that while last year was an unadulterated **** show of EPIC proportions, on game day they were able to win enough to be be within a quarter to getting to the playoffs. So along with all the crap that was on the surface. Getting 8 wins out of THAT group and all the dislocation and chaos that went on, there HAD to be some good coaching going on for them to win as much as they did. Most groups would have packed it in early and had a Jete-like 4 win season.
If you are fair minded and understand a bit about the dynamics of building a team over the course of a long and frustrating season, you will understand this. If you are just a whiney chronic complaining front runners who thinks every drives needs to end up with a score and all defensive series need to be 3 and outs, you will let me know very quickly that I am out of my mind thinking like I do.
And god forbid they actually LOSE a game.
Like I have stated before this season is ALL about building the core group of talent and depth that will compete rabidly for championships starting next year. To do that the STAFF has to show this team they can build the kind of game plans that will ALWAYS give them a chance to win against ANYONE....even so called "wagons" like the Eagles, Cowboys, and all the teams of the AFCE are "supposed to be". If they find themselves competing against those teams the trust that is built up will bode well for this year, but even more so down the road.
Now it has been asked just how many games will they win this season? Well IMHO, it can be as few as 4 or as many as 11. That is the difference between a good but not great team will range between, and we DO not even know for sure if this is a"decent" team yet. I'm hoping it will be, I'm even EXPECTING it to be one, but as a coach at this point of the season you only have an "inkling" of what it will eventually be. No one's lost a game yet. You don't have any idea how a team will react starting say, 1-3.
Some teams go into survival mode and others fight back harder. You'd like to think this a group that will work harder until they get it right, but you don't know until, like I've said, adversity smacks you in the face. The fans are pissed. The media is in full on scorched earth mode looking for blame. THAT is when that "belief" has to be there; That the team can see the light...if. I believe that at the end of the 2000 season, THAT core group "saw the light". They saw it LONG before any of us did.
OK let's look at the position groups and see what we have....and don't have.
OFFENSE:
QB - By all accounts Mac has had a good and CONSISTENT camp. Definitely smacked more of Mac 2021 than 2022. So in that aspect we SHOULD be encouraged. But for me I want to see MORE than the 2021 Mac Jones. I want to see one who who is at least STARTING to recognize his innate athleticism and play accordingly. Not that I'm looking for the second coming of Pat Mahomes, but just MORE that what we've seen so far. Playing more RPO's this season will give him at least a chance to see if he's improved in that score. He is accurate. He throws a nice deep ball. He CAN be decisive. Time to put it all together and become the QB we all envisioned he could be at the end of the 2021 season.
Matt Corral was at one time Phil Sims' top QB coming out in 2022. An injury plagued year later he was waived. That is a pretty significant fall for any player let alone a QB. Let's face it; He's a potential shot in the dark. He has quick feet and a live arm. He was successful in an RPO offense in the toughest conference inn the country. But can be play QB in the NFL? NO one knows for sure. On the plus side, his college HC had 3 seasons (14-16) at Alabama, so their should be some familiarity with the language. According to the QB show, footwork seemed to be the biggest issue.
Bailey Zappe had a shooting star moment that has faded. Still doesn't mean he can't improve on his bad 2023 preseason. I WILL be our back up QB for at least the first few games while Corral gets up to speed. He DIDN'T lose his job because he played behind a bad OL in 3 preseason games. He lost it because he CONSISTENTLY wasn't good at dozens of practises either. Maybe he was more suited to a Josh McDaniels kind of offense? I don't know, but he just didn't perform well. But he WILL have a chance to redeem himself and improve his game on the PS this season.
That is what we are going in with at QB. We have the 3 arms you always have to have to practise during the season. I have purposely left out Malik. I believe Corral's skill set makes him just as good as he is to run the scout defense of an RPO QB like we are playing this week. Malik can now full concentrate on becoming the best WR he can.
I STILL would like to see a vet QB come in at some point, even if it costs Zappe or Corral their spot.
WR - I think this might be the best group we've had for several years......with some caveats . Parker has be CONSISTENTLY productive.....when he's on the field that is. We cannot know about injuries so there IS hope. We know for sure he'll be on the field next Sunday at least.
Bourne has been the talk of the camp. He was MY breakout player last year. It didn't pan out, just like all things on offense didn't Maybe THIS is the year.
JJSS- He was brought in to be an upgrade to Meyer. A guy who is reliable like Jacobi, but with more YAC and redzone availability. We shall see, but the history is there.
Thornton- Hurt again, not much more to say until he's back.
Douglas and Boutee - interesting rookie prospects. TWO guys you can get excited about at least. Let's see how much each is used at the start of the season. Not much I guess, because for THIS team, because being in the right place is going to be paramount for receivers this year. Rookies aren't always as consistent in that area to start.
TE's - Like most of our starting positions we are pretty good, but with little depth. Henry and Gisicki look like a solid receiving duo, though a shade light on blocking. Adding PBrown to the mix and Sokol to the PS give them what they need to start the season
OL - Along with this becoming too damned long, the OL is such a question mark we will have NO idea who will be starting and what they will look like when they finally step on the field next Sunday, so I'll try and make the rest short.
4/5ths of the OL ACTUALLY looks good.....on paper. Brown, Strange, Andrews, and Owen are all decent to very good. On the negative side, until last week none of them have practiced together, and SOME of them hadn't practised at all. We have NO idea who we will have at RT although the candidate list is LONG. Any of McDermott, Reiff , Anderson, Lowe, or Wheatley could be named. Has it been reported who worked with the ones, last week? Enquiring minds want to know.
So in the end it is a mystery vs the most fearsome defensive line in the league. Doesn't bode well for the first few games, unfortunately. But it is what it is and even a semblance of competence and continuity will be a credit to the coaching staff and the players. Clearly not ideal, but it IS the hand you have been dealt.
RB's - The top 2 guys are CLEARLY good to VERY good. Both are big backs and will get what's there. Rham can and DOES make guys miss. Elliot is at the point where he will gets what's there and makes\ defenders pay when they tackle him. Both are decent receivers, but neither would you call explosive. Not a bad group. JJ and Harris are on the PS, and I'm guessing JJ will end up being on the opening day roster
Defense.
Interior DL - Now this is a fluid group where guys like Wise and White could line up both inside and out. It is also the position I am MOST excited about. Godcheaux is what he is. A run stuffer who occasionally shows some inside burst. But after that, Barmore, Eukle, Roberts, and the aforementioned White and Wise, ALL can offer significant inside push to really intimidate a QB and make it a LOT easier for the outside rushers. Roberts in particular has made a big impression on me this summer. On the other hand, I'm just hoping Barmore is saving himself for the regular season because he's been largely invisible this summer.
Edge - Judon is exceptional. Uche can bend the edge well, but is more limited in his all round game. Jennings has SLOWLY improved each year, plus White and Wise give the Pats a very nice array of different kinds of looks based on the match ups they will see each week. Good AND flexible.
LB - Bentley is now a solid and effective pro, the first 2 downs. So is Tavai who often surprises me with his nimbleness. Mapu will be a star in the league and Wilson offers speed as a reserve. I like this group. This is NOT your plodding group of pounders like we saw 20 years ago.
DB's Again, lots of speed, and flexibility back there. It is probably our best and deepest position on the field The most interesting thing for me is when or IF the boys down on Park Ave will drop the hammer on Jack Jones. The silence has been DEAFENING. I mean if they are going to do something they HAVE to announce it by Monday. If they don't then I guess, nothing will be done until he goes to court later this month. Again, we shall see.
ST's - The punter looks AWESOME - The kid can be a major weapon and help the D. The kicker, not so much. But here's the thing, almost EVERY rookie kicker shows some inconsistency in their rookie seasons. Remember while the 2 greatest kickers in the Pats history who averaged over 84% success over their careers kicked in the mid 70% their rookie year. And Adam Veinitri who might have been the clutchest big game kicker in NFL history, doinked 2 easy kicks to tie or win games in 99 that probably cost Pete Carroll his job. (Does that make him a goat or hero) You have to have a LITTLE more patience for rookie kickers. And the Punt and kickoff returner are better than average, not that the league wants to see either happen much.
The Eagles : Easily one of the 2 top teams in the league, with a loaded and deep roster, full of stars and brand names. The Eagles are a formidable foe. Under normal conditions, on paper, the Pats would have NO chance of winning this game. But these are not normal conditions. There are a few mitigating factors that COULD play into a Pats victory.
The superbowl loser syndrome. All that work for essentially nothing. The extra month of playing. The hangover. They too have had a TC with very little hitting. AND for all the hype, the actual physical talent is 90% the same. The game is at home....on Tom Brady day. It'll be a tough, electric home crowd for Philly. to overcome. The surprise factor. No one has tape on anyone. The heavy favorite will generally play to form and do what they do best. The underdog might come up with a few wrinkles. All together it's not much, but it is something to hang your hat on.
So in the end, not so short after all. What did I expect. Thanks for your patience. Enjoy your coffee and bagel, and let me know what you think.
.
General thought:
I'm usually an optimist, especially before any games have been played. I REALLY think that this is going to be "a nice little team". A team that is going to be easy to root for. BUT it is not going to be good enough to overpower or simply out play opponents. But they ARE going to be able to win games if on that particular day, they are smarter, more disciplined, and mentally tougher than the other team It is going to be as simple as that. They are going to be IN most games going into the 4th quarter. I doubt we shall see, even with the "ouch" of a schedule, that we get more than 2 or 3 games where we will see any blow outs The defense is just too good for that to happen more than that.
Now, at this point, smart, disciplined and tough are adjectives that do not describe this team. We really won't know that until the middle of October after the REAL rust has been scraped off and we see how this team responds to adversity. But this is the kind of team we will NEED if we are going to contend for a playoff berth. That is the kind of team Bill always looks to build, and HAS most years.
When the Pats dynasty first started and the teams' records were usually better than the relative talent pool, when you compared them to others To do that however it will be up to the coaching staff to rebuild. Bill seemed to get a bit more out of HIS teams, because those guy believed in their souls that if they executed the respective game plans that they were given, they would win that game. Now some games were executed better than others. Sometimes injuries or just bad luck or calls occurred. But there WAS no questioning the game plans. They were just that good. This is the kind of trust that needs to happen if this team is going to have any success this year,
Now that isn't to say that as coaches mistakes won't be made. Of COURSE there will be. There will ALWAYS be calls and instant decisions that you want back. Coaches have 20-20 hindsight too. But with this club the coaches margin for error narrows because the perception, at least, will mostly be, the OTHER is better than yours. Bill, in the past, has has done that consistently for a couple of decades. And I opine that while last year was an unadulterated **** show of EPIC proportions, on game day they were able to win enough to be be within a quarter to getting to the playoffs. So along with all the crap that was on the surface. Getting 8 wins out of THAT group and all the dislocation and chaos that went on, there HAD to be some good coaching going on for them to win as much as they did. Most groups would have packed it in early and had a Jete-like 4 win season.
If you are fair minded and understand a bit about the dynamics of building a team over the course of a long and frustrating season, you will understand this. If you are just a whiney chronic complaining front runners who thinks every drives needs to end up with a score and all defensive series need to be 3 and outs, you will let me know very quickly that I am out of my mind thinking like I do.
And god forbid they actually LOSE a game.Like I have stated before this season is ALL about building the core group of talent and depth that will compete rabidly for championships starting next year. To do that the STAFF has to show this team they can build the kind of game plans that will ALWAYS give them a chance to win against ANYONE....even so called "wagons" like the Eagles, Cowboys, and all the teams of the AFCE are "supposed to be". If they find themselves competing against those teams the trust that is built up will bode well for this year, but even more so down the road.
Now it has been asked just how many games will they win this season? Well IMHO, it can be as few as 4 or as many as 11. That is the difference between a good but not great team will range between, and we DO not even know for sure if this is a"decent" team yet. I'm hoping it will be, I'm even EXPECTING it to be one, but as a coach at this point of the season you only have an "inkling" of what it will eventually be. No one's lost a game yet. You don't have any idea how a team will react starting say, 1-3.
Some teams go into survival mode and others fight back harder. You'd like to think this a group that will work harder until they get it right, but you don't know until, like I've said, adversity smacks you in the face. The fans are pissed. The media is in full on scorched earth mode looking for blame. THAT is when that "belief" has to be there; That the team can see the light...if. I believe that at the end of the 2000 season, THAT core group "saw the light". They saw it LONG before any of us did.
OK let's look at the position groups and see what we have....and don't have.
OFFENSE:
QB - By all accounts Mac has had a good and CONSISTENT camp. Definitely smacked more of Mac 2021 than 2022. So in that aspect we SHOULD be encouraged. But for me I want to see MORE than the 2021 Mac Jones. I want to see one who who is at least STARTING to recognize his innate athleticism and play accordingly. Not that I'm looking for the second coming of Pat Mahomes, but just MORE that what we've seen so far. Playing more RPO's this season will give him at least a chance to see if he's improved in that score. He is accurate. He throws a nice deep ball. He CAN be decisive. Time to put it all together and become the QB we all envisioned he could be at the end of the 2021 season.
Matt Corral was at one time Phil Sims' top QB coming out in 2022. An injury plagued year later he was waived. That is a pretty significant fall for any player let alone a QB. Let's face it; He's a potential shot in the dark. He has quick feet and a live arm. He was successful in an RPO offense in the toughest conference inn the country. But can be play QB in the NFL? NO one knows for sure. On the plus side, his college HC had 3 seasons (14-16) at Alabama, so their should be some familiarity with the language. According to the QB show, footwork seemed to be the biggest issue.
Bailey Zappe had a shooting star moment that has faded. Still doesn't mean he can't improve on his bad 2023 preseason. I WILL be our back up QB for at least the first few games while Corral gets up to speed. He DIDN'T lose his job because he played behind a bad OL in 3 preseason games. He lost it because he CONSISTENTLY wasn't good at dozens of practises either. Maybe he was more suited to a Josh McDaniels kind of offense? I don't know, but he just didn't perform well. But he WILL have a chance to redeem himself and improve his game on the PS this season.
That is what we are going in with at QB. We have the 3 arms you always have to have to practise during the season. I have purposely left out Malik. I believe Corral's skill set makes him just as good as he is to run the scout defense of an RPO QB like we are playing this week. Malik can now full concentrate on becoming the best WR he can.
I STILL would like to see a vet QB come in at some point, even if it costs Zappe or Corral their spot.
WR - I think this might be the best group we've had for several years......with some caveats . Parker has be CONSISTENTLY productive.....when he's on the field that is. We cannot know about injuries so there IS hope. We know for sure he'll be on the field next Sunday at least.
Bourne has been the talk of the camp. He was MY breakout player last year. It didn't pan out, just like all things on offense didn't Maybe THIS is the year.
JJSS- He was brought in to be an upgrade to Meyer. A guy who is reliable like Jacobi, but with more YAC and redzone availability. We shall see, but the history is there.
Thornton- Hurt again, not much more to say until he's back.
Douglas and Boutee - interesting rookie prospects. TWO guys you can get excited about at least. Let's see how much each is used at the start of the season. Not much I guess, because for THIS team, because being in the right place is going to be paramount for receivers this year. Rookies aren't always as consistent in that area to start.
TE's - Like most of our starting positions we are pretty good, but with little depth. Henry and Gisicki look like a solid receiving duo, though a shade light on blocking. Adding PBrown to the mix and Sokol to the PS give them what they need to start the season
OL - Along with this becoming too damned long, the OL is such a question mark we will have NO idea who will be starting and what they will look like when they finally step on the field next Sunday, so I'll try and make the rest short.
4/5ths of the OL ACTUALLY looks good.....on paper. Brown, Strange, Andrews, and Owen are all decent to very good. On the negative side, until last week none of them have practiced together, and SOME of them hadn't practised at all. We have NO idea who we will have at RT although the candidate list is LONG. Any of McDermott, Reiff , Anderson, Lowe, or Wheatley could be named. Has it been reported who worked with the ones, last week? Enquiring minds want to know.
So in the end it is a mystery vs the most fearsome defensive line in the league. Doesn't bode well for the first few games, unfortunately. But it is what it is and even a semblance of competence and continuity will be a credit to the coaching staff and the players. Clearly not ideal, but it IS the hand you have been dealt.
RB's - The top 2 guys are CLEARLY good to VERY good. Both are big backs and will get what's there. Rham can and DOES make guys miss. Elliot is at the point where he will gets what's there and makes\ defenders pay when they tackle him. Both are decent receivers, but neither would you call explosive. Not a bad group. JJ and Harris are on the PS, and I'm guessing JJ will end up being on the opening day roster
Defense.
Interior DL - Now this is a fluid group where guys like Wise and White could line up both inside and out. It is also the position I am MOST excited about. Godcheaux is what he is. A run stuffer who occasionally shows some inside burst. But after that, Barmore, Eukle, Roberts, and the aforementioned White and Wise, ALL can offer significant inside push to really intimidate a QB and make it a LOT easier for the outside rushers. Roberts in particular has made a big impression on me this summer. On the other hand, I'm just hoping Barmore is saving himself for the regular season because he's been largely invisible this summer.
Edge - Judon is exceptional. Uche can bend the edge well, but is more limited in his all round game. Jennings has SLOWLY improved each year, plus White and Wise give the Pats a very nice array of different kinds of looks based on the match ups they will see each week. Good AND flexible.
LB - Bentley is now a solid and effective pro, the first 2 downs. So is Tavai who often surprises me with his nimbleness. Mapu will be a star in the league and Wilson offers speed as a reserve. I like this group. This is NOT your plodding group of pounders like we saw 20 years ago.
DB's Again, lots of speed, and flexibility back there. It is probably our best and deepest position on the field The most interesting thing for me is when or IF the boys down on Park Ave will drop the hammer on Jack Jones. The silence has been DEAFENING. I mean if they are going to do something they HAVE to announce it by Monday. If they don't then I guess, nothing will be done until he goes to court later this month. Again, we shall see.
ST's - The punter looks AWESOME - The kid can be a major weapon and help the D. The kicker, not so much. But here's the thing, almost EVERY rookie kicker shows some inconsistency in their rookie seasons. Remember while the 2 greatest kickers in the Pats history who averaged over 84% success over their careers kicked in the mid 70% their rookie year. And Adam Veinitri who might have been the clutchest big game kicker in NFL history, doinked 2 easy kicks to tie or win games in 99 that probably cost Pete Carroll his job. (Does that make him a goat or hero) You have to have a LITTLE more patience for rookie kickers. And the Punt and kickoff returner are better than average, not that the league wants to see either happen much.
The Eagles : Easily one of the 2 top teams in the league, with a loaded and deep roster, full of stars and brand names. The Eagles are a formidable foe. Under normal conditions, on paper, the Pats would have NO chance of winning this game. But these are not normal conditions. There are a few mitigating factors that COULD play into a Pats victory.
The superbowl loser syndrome. All that work for essentially nothing. The extra month of playing. The hangover. They too have had a TC with very little hitting. AND for all the hype, the actual physical talent is 90% the same. The game is at home....on Tom Brady day. It'll be a tough, electric home crowd for Philly. to overcome. The surprise factor. No one has tape on anyone. The heavy favorite will generally play to form and do what they do best. The underdog might come up with a few wrinkles. All together it's not much, but it is something to hang your hat on.
So in the end, not so short after all. What did I expect. Thanks for your patience. Enjoy your coffee and bagel, and let me know what you think.
.
