Playoff Scenarios

[catent]

I think the Patriots path to a playoff berth is actually fairly straightforward (meaning simple/easy to follow, not necessarily easily achieved).

Here is what needs to occur:

Pats win remaining two games against Miami and Buffalo
Vegas loses one of their remaining three games (Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Kansas City)
Miami loses two of their remaining three games (Green Bay, New England, New York Jets)

Las Vegas gets Pittsburgh, San Fran, Kansas City. I doubt they win out. So that box is likely checked.

Miami gets Green Bay, New England, NYJ. They'll probably be favored against Green Bay but I wouldn't be shocked if they lost that game. Probably beat dysfunctional NYJ. Pats might control their own destiny against Miami next week, should Miami lose this week to Green Bay. That's a really big game.

Even if we get to that point, I really doubt the Pats can beat Buffalo in Buffalo. Buffalo is likely to be playing hard in an effort to secure the #1 seed. There is a chance - if Denver was to beat KC in week 17 - that Buffalo could secure the #1 seed regardless of the outcome of their game against the Pats, but I'm not sure how likely Denver is to beat KC. That said, it's possible the Pats are playing that game against the Bills such that a win means they're in, so the incentive would be there.

 

[Fubby]

Insert Jim Mora video here

 

[PatsFan2]

 

[Froob]

 

[reflexblue]

Insert Jim Mora video here

I was about to

 

[BradytoMosstoGronk]

I'm confused, Miami and the Chargers are the seeds up for grabs, and Vegas is below us.

Did you mean LA?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

theres a scenario where 8-9 gets us in

 

[catent]

I don't think it's particularly likely. I said as much in my original post. That doesn't mean I'm not rooting for it, and I sure as hell won't write them off until it's officially over, no matter how unlikely it seems. If things always went the way we thought they would, the 2007 Patriots would've finished with a 19-0 record.

I don't mind criticism. I don't mind realism. I accept this team isn't likely to win a championship. But once you can't root for / track your team's postseason odds (while they're still alive) just because they haven't been playing well ... sheesh. Suffice to say I think that's a pretty lame mindset, to put it lightly.

 

[jdlboot14]

With the playoffs firmly in our control - we collapse in the final 3 minutes in Vegas (on defense!), and then lay a complete egg in the first half today. The 2nd half was the most exciting and inspired we've played since Zappe was QB, but Rham gives up another fumble in a clutch moment.
Point - we aren't playoff material this year. It's nice to officially keep hope alive, and it'd be nice to beat MIA next week. But, unless something finally clicked in the 4th qtr today, I don't see our offense being competitive vs. Dolphins & Bills.

 

[zipster9]

Realistic: Patriots 7-10

Don't fool yourself.

 

[Disco Volante]

theres a scenario where 8-9 gets us in

-Patriots beat Dolphins
-Dolphins lose 2 other games (vs Packers, @ Jets)
-Steelers lose 1 more game (@ Ravens, vs Browns)
-Raiders lose 1 more game (vs 49ers, vs Chiefs)

Honestly if the Dolphins lose tomorrow this isn't particularly crazy.

Regardless, let's hope the Dolphins do indeed lose tomorrow which once again gives us control of our playoff destiny.

 

[FCB02062]

so you're saying there's a chance....

 

[ScottishPatriots]

7-10

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I don't think it's particularly likely. I said as much in my original post. That doesn't mean I'm not rooting for it, and I sure as hell won't write them off until it's officially over, no matter how unlikely it seems. If things always went the way we thought they would, the 2007 Patriots would've finished with a 19-0 record.

I don't mind criticism. I don't mind realism. I accept this team isn't likely to win a championship. But once you can't root for / track your team's postseason odds (while they're still alive) just because they haven't been playing well ... sheesh. Suffice to say I think that's a pretty lame mindset, to put it lightly.

Im with you d, keep the hope alive till we’re mathematically done.

 

[doesntmatter1]

I don't think this team is done giving us false hope just yet. I'm still rooting for us but they are making me hate myself the last two weeks lol.

 

[venecol]

so you're saying there's a chance....

9% chance which is > 0%. Lol

 

[sean10mm]

Not us lol

 

[TinhWoodhead]

imagine stealers get in over us lol

 

[Racervx54]

Lmao... Playoffs...................

 

[Jim Beankie]

-Patriots beat Dolphins
-Dolphins lose 2 other games (vs Packers, @ Jets)
-Steelers lose 1 more game (@ Ravens, vs Browns)
-Raiders lose 1 more game (vs 49ers, vs Chiefs)

Honestly if the Dolphins lose tomorrow this isn't particularly crazy.

Regardless, let's hope the Dolphins do indeed lose tomorrow which once again gives us control of our playoff destiny.

Additionally for 8-9:
Jets would have to lose to the Seahawks.
Titans would have to lose a game.
Steelers have to lose a game.

That being said, I see Pats odds at different places from 6-16%. I'm gonna wait until after the Dolphins game to get my hopes back up.