The last 2 times Brady wasn't the starter

[Simpelton]

2008, Patriots go 10-5 after winning the game in which he goes down. The starter, Matt Cassel, went on to have a short career as an NFL starter and even lead the Chiefs to a playoff appearance before injuries and his limited arm strength relegated him to a perennial backup

2016, with 2 different backups during Brady's suspension, managed to go 3-1 and nearly went 4-0 but the rookie 3rd string quarterback playing through a hand injury had a rough game in week 4. Some mountains just aren't there to be climbed. Both of those 2 backups were starters last year, although their trajectory looks very different going forward.

I think our track record of getting the job done without TB12 is pretty good. That's not to say Brady is anything other than great. the usual relationship is that Belichick gets Brady into position to win championships then Brady executes in the clutch, we don't win 6 in living memory without that.

There's no reason we won't be right in the thick of things next year. The only team that worries me at all in our division is the Bills, and unless they take a big step forward offensively I can't consider them a true threat for the division. If we do our job we ought to be back in the playoffs next year and after that it's anyone's guess.

 

[archstanton543]

There's no reason we won't be right in the thick of things next year. The only team that worries me at all in our division is the Bills, and unless they take a big step forward offensively I can't consider them a true threat for the division. If we do our job we ought to be back in the playoffs next year and after that it's anyone's guess.

The reason we won't be is the schedule. It will be a lot like last year where the D will keep us in games but at the end of the day, Stidham is going to have to make big-time throws. Devlin just retired so they need another road grader out there or our still sizable stable of RB's will be stuck in the mud like last year. The O-line should be better but without Scar...who knows...

There's going to be a significant step back for this team next year and that's okay. Losing a generational talent like Brady isn't something most teams can come back from in a year or even two or three.

 

[Kontradiction]

So we missed the playoffs with basically the same team that went 16-0 the season before against a softer schedule and then went 3-1 with two games being started by a QB who just played in the Super Bowl and a squad who went 14-2. The schedule this year looks brutal. An awful lot would have to change to feel good about our chances of being in the postseason picture. The draft would have to be a slam dunk, capable of producing immediately.

 

[Deus Irae]

The last 2 times Brady wasn't the starter resulted in:

1.) The team missing the playoffs despite having a stacked team and easy schedule

and

2.) The two QBs behind him both getting injured to the point that they were effectively useless, in just 4 games




But, sure, let's play make believe.

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

I don't think next season is about playoffs. All we should care about is the development of our young players and maybe we can be surprised with good success. However I am hoping we at least go 9-7 to keep our streak going.

 

[Uptown]

But the difference is that in 2008 we had the essential leadership of Deltha O’Neal and elite play from Jordan Richards in 2016..

 

[TheRainMaker]

Next season will be interesting because:

No more automatic wins.

Pats now come back down to earth with the rest of the NFL.

Coaching staff can’t rely on Brady to make wine out of water.

Prior drafts will be on full display.

 

[Run DMC]

That was then, this is now. Flat up against the cap(?!), no Brady, no TEs, no WRs, rookie unproven QB, decimated defensive front 7, pathetic lack of offense, no Scar, all time deficiency of skill players, vastly improved AFCE, and 6 straight years of horrendous drafting. Now going up against powerhouse NFCW. It'll be a miracle if this team is over .500 this year. I'm saying it now, BB will be fired within 3 years. The game has passed him by.

 

[upstater1]

2008, Patriots go 10-5 after winning the game in which he goes down. The starter, Matt Cassel, went on to have a short career as an NFL starter and even lead the Chiefs to a playoff appearance before injuries and his limited arm strength relegated him to a perennial backup

2016, with 2 different backups during Brady's suspension, managed to go 3-1 and nearly went 4-0 but the rookie 3rd string quarterback playing through a hand injury had a rough game in week 4. Some mountains just aren't there to be climbed. Both of those 2 backups were starters last year, although their trajectory looks very different going forward.

I think our track record of getting the job done without TB12 is pretty good. That's not to say Brady is anything other than great. the usual relationship is that Belichick gets Brady into position to win championships then Brady executes in the clutch, we don't win 6 in living memory without that.

There's no reason we won't be right in the thick of things next year. The only team that worries me at all in our division is the Bills, and unless they take a big step forward offensively I can't consider them a true threat for the division. If we do our job we ought to be back in the playoffs next year and after that it's anyone's guess.

I'm not trying to argue with you on this, but I will play devil's advocate:

1. 2008 we were coming off a 2007 team that went 16-0 and had a ton of talent. Fitzpatrick could have lead that team to 11 wins. In 2007, they played the league's toughest schedule. In 2008, the Patriots played one of the easiest schedules. The drop off of 5 wins with essentially the same personnel was significant.

2. Matt Cassel not only went on to lead the Chiefs to the playoffs, but he also had much better stats in KC as he had in New England. He also made the Pro Bowl in KC.

3. In 2016, the team scuffled through the first 2 games. But won them. They were lead by Garoppolo, who is a bonafide top starter in the NFL. When Brissett took over for the next couple of games, we destroyed the Texans--that has to be the most embarrassing loss of O'Brien's tenure there. Then the lowly Bills took the Patriots to the woodshed. The game was at Foxboro. 3-1 is a good result for 4 games, and it is the Patriots typical record both during the season and in the playoffs the last 20 years, but it is too short a window to draw conclusions. Also consider that the QB that lead the Patriots to a 1-1 record that year went 7-9 with the Colts. He is a middling NFL QB, and 7-9 is middling. When Brady came back, he lead the team to a Super Bowl victory, and would have been a candidate for MVP if he had played the entire year.

4. You can go through NFL history and find evidence of QBs who were great for a season. Cassel's story is not unusual at all. I can reel off any number of names, like Case Keenum, Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles, Matt Schaub, Colin Kaepernick, Brock Osweiler, Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, Marc Bulger, etc.

These guys rack up wins in one season, pile on the stats, but once the NFL gets the book on them, knows their tendencies, they don't have an act two.

I expect the Patriots floor is something like the colts ceiling from last year, 7-9. But unless Stidham is at Jimmy Garoppolo's level, the ceiling for the Patriots is at 10 wins.

I project 9-7 for them.

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

Also, the difference between a Brady run NE unit and Stidham run NE unit will be clear as day. Not that I am whining, but I don't really expect our success to be anywhere near the Brady era for the first season as a starter. If we somehow go 6-10, we shouldn't give up on the guy because of one season. Let him develop and maybe we will be surprised with 9-7 or better.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Bombshell thread by the OP.

 

[primetime]

Matt Cassel wasn't "great" for a season. He was adequate while playing on essentially the same offense that had blown up the record books and barely missed an undefeated season (through no fault of theirs) the year before. Brady would have gone 15-1 with that team and won the Super Bowl. (They would have lost that first Wildcat game come hell or high water, Belichick just got outcoached.) Heck someone said Fitzpatrick would have led that team to 11 wins but Fitzpatrick might have won the Super Bowl with them.

If Stidham is no better than Matt Cassel we're in for a long season.

 

[primetime]

Also, the difference between a Brady run NE unit and Stidham run NE unit will be clear as day. Not that I am whining, but I don't really expect our success to be anywhere near the Brady era for the first season as a starter. If we somehow go 6-10, we shouldn't give up on the guy because of one season. Let him develop and maybe we will be surprised with 9-7 or better.

If they go 6-10 they better be drafting Fields or this North Dakota State guy or whatever QB comes out of nowhere to be a top-10 pick.

 

[upstater1]

Despite what that talent scout said about the Patriots, the offense does have enough weapons to compete, assuming everyone comes back healthy. And plays healthy.

Look at the upgrades:

Andrews > Karras
Mason > Injured Mason
Cannon > Injured Cannon
Healthy Wynn > Newhouse + hobbled Wynn
OL backups > '19 OL backups
Harry > Harry for only 6 games
Sanu > Injured Sanu
Edelman > Injured Edelman
2nd year Meyers & Hill > Rookie Meyers & Dorsett

Could be better at TE if Asiasi & Steele > Izzo & Lacosse

Defense has a few big losses in Van Noy & Collins, but...

If Dugger, Uche and Jennings come close to replacing the production of Van Noy & Collins, we will be stellar. Throw in Brandon Copeland, and Adrian Phillips replaces Duron Harmon, and you can see the defense coming on strong.

2 more bonuses. Chase Winovich and Joejuan Williams might be ready to become big pieces in their second years.

The big unknowns for the Patriots next year are Stidham, the continued development of the young players, and the losses of Joe Judge and especially Dante Scarnecchia.

I see them becoming a 9-7 team, ceiling of 10 wins, floor of 7 wins.

 

[Kontradiction]

If they go 6-10 they better be drafting Fields or this North Dakota State guy or whatever QB comes out of nowhere to be a top-10 pick.

Why go 6-10 when you can go 1-15?

 

[primetime]

Why go 6-10 when you can go 1-15?

You won't get any argument here!

 

[Kontradiction]

You won't get any argument here!

I was mostly joking but if the team starts off, say, 1-4, I’m not sure why you wouldn’t just trade whatever talent the team has on upcoming expiring contracts, collect picks, and see if they can win the Lawrence Bowl.

 

[mgteich]

I don't think next season is about playoffs. All we should care about is the development of our young players and maybe we can be surprised with good success. However I am hoping we at least go 9-7 to keep our streak going.

I understand your position. I suspect that Belichick strongly disagrees. The team went 12-4 last year and could have easily been 13-3. Perhaps the schedule is worth 2 games. So that has this season at 10-6 or 11-5 if personal were equal to the value produced in 2019.

Most folks here are predicting 5-8 wins and no playoffs, hoping for 9 as you do. The bettors in Vegas has us at 8-9 wins, with a current line of 8.5 wins. The over has us at 9 or more wins and a likely playoff berth. The under has us at 8 wins or less, and likely out of the playoffs.

So, let's see where we are. I understand that we might have a significant free agent pickup, but since a significant pickup would likely be accompanied by a trade of Thuney, I'll ignore such possible changes.

HOW MUCH WORSE IS THE 2020 TEAM, COMPARED TO 2019
We are worse at QB and LB, and better in almost all other units.

SPECIAL TEAMS (better)
P - same
K - better
ST - We've lost Ebner. King (IR last year), Slater, Bolden and Bethel are back. We've added Davis.

DEFENSE (a bit worse)
DL - a bit worse (lost Shelton; added Allen, have a more experience Winovich and Cowart)
LB - worse (the rookies can't make up for the loss of Van Noy, Collins and Roberts)
CB - the same
S - the same (Phillips and Duggar should be able to make up for the loss of Harmon, and for the fact that McCourty and Chung may be in their last years)

OFFENSE (you judge)
QB - worse (but how much compared to 2019 Brady)
WR - better (more health for Edelman, sans and Harry; more experience for Harry and Myers; the addition of Byrd and Lee). This unit is still one player away from AVERAGE
RB - same (Harris does know the system better)
TE - much better (not a high bar, but I like the rookies)
OT - better (we had Newhouse starting; Wynn, Casnnon and Cajuste are healthier)
OC - Andrews and Froholdt are both healthier, and an upgrade over Karras
OG - The starters are back for now. Froholdt is a fine backup. Enwenu and Eluemunor are OK as our end of the roster backups.

 

[sb1]

I was mostly joking but if the team starts off, say, 1-4, I’m not sure why you wouldn’t just trade whatever talent the team has on upcoming expiring contracts, collect picks, and see if they can win the Lawrence Bowl.

Belichick isn’t throwing a season in the trash.

Not when the guy he’s chasing on the all time wins list called him a cheater. He hasn’t forgotten that. I expect he’ll have the team competing every week even if it means 8-8 or 9-7 and out of the top 10 in the draft.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

These guys rack up wins in one season, pile on the stats, but once the NFL gets the book on them, knows their tendencies, they don't have an act two.

It's been said that, for most franchises, there are three critical decisions: GM, coach, and quarterback. Scott Pioli got his quarterback right, but f—ed up by picking a coach who actively undermined his QB. Note that Cassel was a Pro Bowler in 2010 when they brought in Charlie Weis, and then Todd Haley chased Weis off.

Who knows how Cassel would have done if he had ended up with a coach that believed in and worked with him?