Kontradiction
On my retirement tour.
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This is an interesting, if not depressing, read. Not sure I fully agree with it. With all he had to deal with at WR, TE (or lack thereof), and interior OL, I think it's impossible to determine whether or not Brady is in decline already. Whether he is or is not should become more clear when the team gives him a few more weapons and the WR's we currently field come of age. He did make some bad decisions, but what quarterback doesn't? That said, Football Outsiders did a film study that started with breaking down his deep passing accuracy and then broke it down a bit more from there. I'll highlight some key parts...
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Film Room: Tom Brady
I don't particularly agree with this.
Just to note, there's no comparison to other quarterbacks in this article, but it's still a somewhat interesting, albeit flawed, read. Each breakdown they do of him comes with All-22 stills that break down the play.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Film Room: Tom Brady
Brady was going to have to make up for a lot on the offensive side of the ball entering the year, and was tasked to do even more as potential solutions continued to crash and burn. Then came the defensive depletions. Defensive tackles Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly both landed on IR. The team's best linebacker, Jerod Mayo, also landed on IR during the season, while free agent addition Adrian Wilson never played a snap at safety because of an apparent torn Achilles
Brady's season can be broken down into three sections.
The first thing that stands out on the charts above is Brady's deep accuracy. Although he excelled with Randy Moss during his prime, there wasn't a huge amount of accuracy required when throwing the ball to Moss. Now that he has smaller receivers who can't create the same separation as Moss, it would make sense that his accuracy throwing the ball deep would decline. This would be an acceptable excuse, but Brady's receivers getting open hasn't been the issue
Kontra: Pics offered in article.
I don't particularly agree with this.
On each of these plays, Brady has plenty of time in the pocket and his receivers are already in stride when he releases the ball. He doesn't have to decipher the coverage or throw with anticipation, so timing is less of an issue. Furthermore, he isn't throwing to rookies, as his receivers are Edelman, Vereen and Amendola. Amendola is the only new receiver of the trio and he had five yards behind the secondary on this play. Instead of laying the ball out for Amendola to run underneath it, the trajectory Brady put on the ball forced Amendola to try and make a one-handed catch with just his fingertips while fully extended.
There were times when his receivers didn't create any separation and Brady forced the ball to them, but there were also times when his accuracy was so poor that the ball landed out of bounds before the receiver had any chance of making even a spectacular catch.
Of course, the popular overriding argument is that Brady is a winner and he has repeatedly proven that this season. He has made a number of late comeback attempts, specifically against the Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints. But he has also made a number of drive-killing plays at critical points in different games that taints his good work in those situations. In that (in)famous victory over the New Orleans Saints, Brady made two terrible decisions that killed drives with less than three minutes left in the fourth quarter. He eventually lead the game-winning drive, but not without a lot of help from his defense and the Saints.
The first play was an incompletion -- a pass that Aaron Dobson should have caught. But a drop from the receiver wasn't the only reason the play failed: It was fourth-and-6. The Patriots needed six yards and Brady threw the ball to Dobson just two yards downfield. It was a good decision from the quarterback, because Dobson had a step on the defender and space to run into for the conversion. However, the poor ball placement from Brady forced Dobson to slow down. While he was reacting to the pass, the defender was closing off the separation that was previously there.
Dobson fails to make the catch, but even if he does, the defender is there to tackle him and take him down short of the first down. If Dobson didn't have to break stride, then the only reason for this play to fail would be a drop. Because Dobson had to break stride, he never had much chance of making the first down anyway. Brady needed to put this ball in front of his receiver. Instead he threw it too low towards his hip.
It's a minor detail, but minor details are huge when you are the quarterback. Minor details are the difference between drives continuing and drives stalling. Between winning and losing.
After this play, the Patriots defense held the Saints to a field goal before Brady heaved a ball down the sideline into double-coverage for an interception. Cautious play-calling gave him a chance to redeem himself, but his decision to heave that pass to Edelman in a situation like this can't simply be ignored. Even Moss probably wouldn't have been able to bail him out on that throw. Brady deserves praise for his successful comebacks, but it's unfair to ignore moments such as these late in games.
Kontra: Pics in article.
Just to note, there's no comparison to other quarterbacks in this article, but it's still a somewhat interesting, albeit flawed, read. Each breakdown they do of him comes with All-22 stills that break down the play.