Some OL chatter

[patfanken]

I was thinking about something I THOUGHT I read about OL pass blocking effectiveness and I found it interesting enough to warrant its own thread.

I find our current OL situation fascinating. Worrying but fascinating as well. On the surface, at least one deep, we could possibly have a decent OL this season, maybe even a good one with Brown, Strange, Andrews and Owenu as 4 of the first 5. But then there's that worrisome problem of NONE of them playing a snap together before 10 days ago, and STILL not have a positive idea of who is going to end up being the RT....AND the back ups.

Now PFF grades their OLmen to have "won" if they score a 0-2 vs their man. 2 meaning you "stoned him" and 0 meaning you broke even with the guy and he didn't mess up the play. Here's the thing. If you are a BOTTOM of the roster offensive lineman not long for the league you "win" over 85% of the time. Aren't too many jobs that you can win 85% of the time and be considered BAD at your job.

Now really GOOD offensive linemen win 94-97% of the time and decent ones are over 90% While JAGS are just in the 87-89 range Now ESPN ranks a win as a sustained block for 2.5 seconds and the win rates are lower.

And some thoughts on OL rankings. I saw a PFF stat that ranked OL from 2015-2021 This is a time frame were the Pats went to 3 consecutive superbowls and made the playoffs 3 of the other 4 years. I was somewhat surprised to see them ranked 15th over those years (average)

But there are things to question about how they rate someone's effort. Do you count it the same when you have Joey Bossa rushing you the same as when you have a JAG doing it. Is holding Bossa to a 0 better than stroning a Jag with a 1 or 2....or not. Then of course there are more complications. How do you tell if the QB or C doesn't set the pass blocking to the right side. How does a missed block by a RB or TE affect the entire line's score. Or how do you score it if the D just has more guys rushing than the O has blocking. So MANY factors into what sites factor into their OL rating systems

So we are back where we started where are we going with our OL. We will face "the best DL" in the league on Sunday. I think the best we can hope for will be for our guys to be smart. I don't need them to necessarily WIN all those battles with 2's. I need them to be aimed at the right people, make responsible switches and basically hold their own. That is really all we can expect given their lack of playing time, live action, and continuity. That and keep getting better through the first month of the season.

I'm also hoping that the Eagles, with away game the first month against the Bucs in Florida and a tough game (supposedly) against the Vikings the first month will decide to play a fairly vanilla brand of defense thinking that is all they need to beat us and not wanting to put too much on tape for their future opponents. I don't think they are a heavy blitz team to begin with, but rather choose to beat you to death with wave after wave of good DLmen. THAT would help us if their D is fairly straightforward.

I also hope we stick mostly with straight power blocking in the run game. Zone blocking can be very effective down the road, but given the LACK of continuity of the OL, I'd put a hold on it, because about all, zone blocking REQUIRES a lot of continuity to be effective.

BTW- anyone know for sure who the RT will be?

 

[oldrover]

 

[everlong]

Let's say for easy math our linemen at all at 92% which puts them between good and decent. If they're all losing 8% of the time the DL is in fact winning 40% of the time. Throw in a free blitzer (run or pass) and perhaps it's 50% of the time.

There were so many times last year where the QB had a second or less or our backs were in three yards deep in the backfield almost instantly.

To your point I hope the timing on the combo blocks and line pickups isn't off or Mac could get killed.

 

[State]

I wonder who are starting five OL will be. When are we going to find out? Mike Reiss’s Twitter from pregame workouts?

Onwenu is probably going to be kept out. Mafi at RG? But I am hoping Strange69, Captain Stone’s moniker, plays and plays well.

Brown-Strange-D Andrews-Mafi-???.

 

[mgcolby]

Just saw that Owenu and strange are both questionable. I'm guessing either one of the recent traded for Tackles move inside to RG or we have Brown-Mapi-Andrews-Sow-Anderson

Nothing like 2 rookies starting. Jesus that would make me nervous.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Apparently the Eagles aren't big on stunts and blitzes, so maybe that helps our OL that hasn't had time to work together yet.

Who needs to blitz? Eagles making sack history with a four-man rush | JAKIB Sports

The NFL has officially been keeping track of quarterback sacks since 1982. During that time, just three teams have racked up more than the 68 the Eagles take

jakibsports.com

Welcome to screen city. Montgomery might be the surprise star (I assume he and Zappe are the elevations).

 

[Zuma]

Just saw that Owenu and strange are both questionable. I'm guessing either one of the recent traded for Tackles move inside to RG or we have Brown-Mapi-Andrews-Sow-Anderson

Nothing like 2 rookies starting. Jesus that would make me nervous.

IMO BB is playing the questionable injury card heavily for the 1st game of the season which has been his MO in….forever. He lays it on more heavily the 1st game. I think both Onwenu and Strange are ready to go. We’ll see.

 

[VrabelJr]

I can't figure out of if our OL is actually pretty good or I'm optimistic to the point of being delusional and it's going to be the Achilles heel of the team.

 

[patfanken]

Just saw that Owenu and strange are both questionable. I'm guessing either one of the recent traded for Tackles move inside to RG or we have Brown-Mapi-Andrews-Sow-Anderson

Nothing like 2 rookies starting. Jesus that would make me nervous.

IIRC Thuney and Mason started as Rookies. Correct me if I'm wrong

 

[mgteich]

IIRC Thuney and Mason started as Rookies. Correct me if I'm wrong

So, I feel good about a 5th rounder who was supposed to fight for a spot and a player who has played OT all of camp?

Yes, we have had stars who started as rookies. It does not follow that we shouldn't be concerned if Mafi and Sow are starters at OG, especially with a new player at RT.

That being said, I am fine with the OL if all our starters are healthy, with Mafi and Sow as backups. Of course, we can have an 8th OL active, usually a backup center.

 

[VJCPatriot]

We recently traded for Lowe and Wheatley. They both profile as tackles at 6'6 320. Might be too soon to start either of them given how new they are to the playbook. We'll just have to see the starting lineup on gameday.

Eagles DL is beefy though. Keep an eye out for Haason Reddick who led the Eagles with 16 sacks last season. If the Pats OL can't hold their own it's gonna be a LONG day for Mac Jones!

 

[patfanken]

So, I feel good about a 5th rounder who was supposed to fight for a spot and a player who has played OT all of camp?

Yes, we have had stars who started as rookies. It does not follow that we shouldn't be concerned if Mafi and Sow are starters at OG, especially with a new player at RT.

That being said, I am fine with the OL if all our starters are healthy, with Mafi and Sow as backups. Of course, we can have an 8th OL active, usually a backup center.

Well I actually feel OK about Mafi. He's gotten a lot of preseason snaps and has played pretty well, by all reports. He's a big powerful kid who will do well against big powerful inside people. The questions will arise about whether he's ready for movement. Things happen more quickly on the inside and if they were facing a defense like the Pats run with lots of gaps, slants and loops with LB's and S's, I'd be more worried.

Sow on the other hand looked overmatched sometimes. Of balance and over extending on his punch. Sometimes catching when he needed to repel. That of course is all about experience and seeing something over and over. Often times there is no immediate help at OT and edge rushers are simply better than than they were just a decade ago. Better athletes, and better technicians with all the pass rush camps and guys exchanging ideas.

Maybe that is why the league is allowing OT's to move their back foot before the snap, (heard that on a clip in the KC thread) and being more forgiving to at least SOME OT's (but not others) as how far back they can align. (BTW- it was clear to me that the KC OT's were never on the LOS and often jumped the snap. If this is some league mandated "suggestion" **** to enhance the offensive game, then I hope they end it after Thursday, especially because of all the betting that is going on. That kind of crap leads to inconsistent calling of flags and confusion about what is or is not and illegal formation and illegal motion. That THAT will lead to angry fans and the undermining of the fairness of the game itself. They SHOULD take it seriously.

In the end because I can't even tell you who is going to play OL in 2 days, not just at one position but in THREE! I cannot see this ending well for the Pats. Because it's a home game and the place will be rocking. Because it's Bill and he WILL have a good game plan. And because in the end EVERY out there will be good football players. I don't see it getting out of hand and I expect the Pats to give a credible performance. Lots to build on and that sort of thing. But I don't see how they can win without something like one pick six, a special teams score, and winning the TO battle by 2 or some combination of things. I had hoped that this past week would see some kind of stability for the OL, but its been anything but. Thank god it's a LONG season, because it could be a long Sunday.

 

[rkarp1]

I do see the (potentially) tremendous upside for the OL group. given that 5-6 of them have never even started an nfl game, and Strange and Onwenu coming back from injury, and lastly, one of them is Trent Brown, how long until we see the upside come together? 4 games? 8 games? all season? can the team balance the "next year" OL and win games this year with the current group?
honestly, I saw 2 practices in person this summer and all the preseason broadcast games. Maffi, Andrews, Sow should be here a while and play well. eventually. if they ever did break their "philosophy" and sign Onwenu and draft a stud T, the group really could lead the team back to the playoffs

 

[State]

Maffi, Andrews, Sow should be here a while and play well.

I wish Chasen Hines were still here. Injuries derailed his rookie year. Then this preseason he was moved to LG when he is more suited for RG or center.

He played 111 snaps at LG this preseason. Word was he was really starting to put it together.

Why was he moved out of position with Onwenu’s surgery? Reminiscent of the boneheaded decision last year of moving I Wynn to RT.

Belichick drafted two guys to replace Hines this year. And drafted a college guard to be developed as an OT.

Hines is only 23 years old. He will be a starting RG or center for someone in the future. I miss that kid.

 

[mgteich]

.

Hines is only 23 years old. He will be a starting RG or center for someone in the future. I miss that kid.

Belichick judged that we needed to bring in Mafi to at least compete with Hines. Mafi won the spot. It was really that simple.

 

[moosekill]

I wish Chasen Hines were still here. Injuries derailed his rookie year. Then this preseason he was moved to LG when he is more suited for RG or center.

He played 111 snaps at LG this preseason. Word was he was really starting to put it together.

Why was he moved out of position with Onwenu’s surgery? Reminiscent of the boneheaded decision last year of moving I Wynn to RT.

Belichick drafted two guys to replace Hines this year. And drafted a college guard to be developed as an OT.

Hines is only 23 years old. He will be a starting RG or center for someone in the future. I miss that kid.

Or he will be working a regular job in a few months. He seemed overmatched all preseason.

 

[Wozzy]

Or he will be working a regular job in a few months. He seemed overmatched all preseason.

This ^

The bigger question is why does Stueber still have a job, the guy was as bad or worse than Hines.

 

[Wozzy]

It looks like this:

LT – Trent Brown, Tyrone Wheatley, Vederian Lowe
LG – Cole Strange,
C – David Andrews, Jake Andrews, Kody Russey (PS)
RG – Michael Onwenu, Antonio Mafi,
RT – Calvin Anderson, Sidy Sow, Andrew Stueber (PS),

The only thing unsure is right tackle. It will either be Sow or Anderson... Wheatley maybe a dark horse.

Maybe they promote Russey to backup at center, if they promote Ferentz it will (again) be total negligence, hypocrisy and nepotism.

 

[Zuma]

It looks like this:

LT – Trent Brown, Tyrone Wheatley, Vederian Lowe
LG – Cole Strange,
C – David Andrews, Jake Andrews, Kody Russey (PS)
RG – Michael Onwenu, Antonio Mafi,
RT – Calvin Anderson, Sidy Sow, Andrew Stueber (PS),

The only thing unsure is right tackle. It will either be Sow or Anderson... Wheatley maybe a dark horse.

Maybe they promote Russey to backup at center, if they promote Ferentz it will (again) be total negligence, hypocrisy and nepotism.

I do agree it may be Anderson at RT (although I think he is better at LT). Hard to tell what the team thinks at backup C between Jake and Russey.

 

[Wozzy]

I do agree it may be Anderson at RT (although I think he is better at LT). Hard to tell what the team thinks at backup C between Jake and Russey.

Could also be Sow at RT if they want Anderson as the backup with his ability to play both sides.

Against Philly in week one though they’ll probably lean on the more experienced player.

Anderson could be rusty, they might have a short leash if he struggles.