How To Salvage This Season?

[203Pat]

One of the biggest narratives about Belichick's team building abilities is that he selects mid-tier players that are flexible, fit into his system and create depth. Instead of spending a large % of the cap on a few blue chip players, he selects mid tier ones to provide depth. But how is that really working out?

QB: no blue chip players, lack of depth, below avg.
WR: no blue chip players, lack of depth, below avg.
TE: no blue chip players, good depth, below avg.
RB: no blue chip players, lack of depth, below avg.
OL: 1 blue chip player, lack of depth, below avg.

DL: no blue chip players, lack of depth, below avg.
LB: 1 blue chip player, lack of depth, below avg.
CB: 1 blue chip player, lack of depth, below avg.
S: no blue chip players, lack of depth, below avg.

I think we can call Judon, Gonzo & Onwenu borderline blue chip players. The depth behind these 3 is lacking. Sure, there's a few above avg. players in the mix but the performance of these groups when taking the entire depth into account is below avg.

Not sure if it's a failure of talent recognition, failure in player development or both, but it's not working. In fact, it's regressing. The idea that continuing this team building philosophy model will bring different results is insane to me.

I just don't understand the constant replacing. When guys like Meyers, Dugger, Onwenu, Uche, and Thuney are coming up for new contracts we need to stop letting them all walk (yes I know Dugger, Onwenu and Uche haven't walked yet). If we're constantly plugging holes at spots we actually drafted well at then why not retain them so we can't draft/sign/trade for other needs? We don't need Juju if we pay Meyers. We don't need to draft Cole Strange if we paid Thuney. We don't need to draft Mapu or whomever we sign in March to potentially replace Dugger. Etc. I know you can't sign everyone but we need to re-sign more of these homegrown guys so we have a foundation to build on instead of constantly chasing holes in the roster every March.

 

[203Pat]

We must understand that a concussion, and recovery from a concussion, isn't an injury.

I keep hearing people say "he must be injured" because he sucks so bad. I think he just sucks. He has a history of foot/toe issues, knee issues, and multiple concussions. His body is breaking down on him and even though he is young he has a ton of wear and tear on him and it shows.

 

[VrabelJr]

We obsess about the blue chip player thing and quantity too much. Super Bowl contenders are going to have on average 4-6 "blue chip" players. For our most recent SB runs that was Brady, Gronk, McCourty, Hightower, Thuney, and Revis (2014), Gilmore (2018). It's the middle part of the roster where you need to be good and deep. We have that on defense but not at all on offense. I do believe the OL is coming together, and that may be the bastion of optimism for next season, but every other part of the offense needs drastic improvements.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I just don't understand the constant replacing. When guys like Meyers, Dugger, Onwenu, Uche, and Thuney are coming up for new contracts we need to stop letting them all walk (yes I know Dugger, Onwenu and Uche haven't walked yet). If we're constantly plugging holes at spots we actually drafted well at then why not retain them so we can't draft/sign/trade for other needs. We don't need Juju if we pay Meyers. We don't need to draft Cole Strange if we paid Thuney. We don't need to draft Mapu or whomever we sign in March to potentially replace Dugger. Etc. I know you can't sign everyone but we need to re-sign more of these homegrown guys so we have a foundation to build on instead of constantly chasing holes in the roster every march.

This is all true.

Bill has lost his ****ing mind. Nothing he does makes any sense, other than to be a contrarian/ control freak.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I just don't understand the constant replacing. When guys like Meyers, Dugger, Onwenu, Uche, and Thuney are coming up for new contracts we need to stop letting them all walk (yes I know Dugger, Onwenu and Uche haven't walked yet). If we're constantly plugging holes at spots we actually drafted well at then why not retain them so we can't draft/sign/trade for other needs. We don't need Juju if we pay Meyers. We don't need to draft Cole Strange if we paid Thuney. We don't need to draft Mapu or whomever we sign in March to potentially replace Dugger. Etc. I know you can't sign everyone but we need to re-sign more of these homegrown guys so we have a foundation to build on instead of constantly chasing holes in the roster every march.

Bill has been doing this since he's been the HC. He doesn't sign the majority of the players via draft/trades because he doesn't think they are worthy. Most of the time he is right as they flame out with their new team. However, he's been creating holes on the roster for no reason and hoards at positions that aren't needed. Then when those picks didn't work it, that also became a need which is where we are now. It's all being exposed now that Tom isn't here to disguise it.

With that said, I think it's going to be harder to sign your own with the direction this franchise is going in.

 

[203Pat]

We obsess about the blue chip player thing and quantity too much. Super Bowl contenders are going to have on average 4-6 "blue chip" players. For our most recent SB runs that was Brady, Gronk, McCourty, Hightower, Thuney, and Revis (2014), Gilmore (2018). It's the middle part of the roster where you need to be good and deep. We have that on defense but not at all on offense. I do believe the OL is coming together, and that may be the bastion of optimism for next season, but every other part of the offense needs drastic improvements.

What blue chippers do we have on this team? A very small sample size but Christian Gonzalez?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

What blue chippers do we have on this team? A very small sample size but Christian Gonzalez?

According to upstater, everyone except Mac.

 

[Santi]

easy, lose every game and make some good fkin draft picks.

 

[203Pat]

Bill has been doing this since he's been the HC. He doesn't sign the majority of the players via draft/trades because he doesn't think they are worthy. Most of the time he is right as they flame out with their new team. However, he's been creating holes on the roster for no reason and hoards at positions that aren't needed. Then when those picks didn't work it, that also became a need which is where we are now. It's all being exposed now that Tom isn't here to disguise it.

With that said, I think it's going to be harder to sign your own with the direction this franchise is going in.

This is where it gets tricky with the guys flaming out elsewhere like Trey Flowers and Jamie Collins. Is it that they're not really as good as the other teams thought or is it that they misjudged how those guys would work in their respective systems? Deion Branch is a perfect example. He fit better in our system than he did Seattle's and basically washed out there but I fully believe we could have won the Super Bowl with him on the roster. Is it better to "overpay" for one of your own guys if he truly works and is productive for you or is it better to let him walk and potentially have a hole I your roster?

 

[Hyped]

My idle thoughts and musings on this...

I am not a believer in tanking. When was the last time a team tanked and then won a Super Bowl within the next five years? Ever?
Tanking sets up a loser mentality/habit, players generally hate it (if player reports from tanking teams are to be believed), and it's banking an awful lot on a draft pick that is 50/50 at best, even with the number one pick. We used to make fun of the Colts for "sucking for Luck" and for good reason. They looked like fools, and turned out to be fools. Luck didn't even last beyond his second contract and the Colts never figured out how to win in big moments...maybe because some of veteran players spent considerable time developing loser habits?

We need to see what Mac Jones has, good or bad and either embrace what he is or shut the door and start again.
I personally no longer really believe he's the guy. But there's no harm at this point in making sure that he can't be a contributor on a winning team. It seems rather clear that, absent a Flacco-esque run, he's not the guy to carry a team to the Super Bowl, but if he can do enough, with a strong enough team around him, then perhaps it's something. However, that first contract is coming to an end soon and he's either going to cost a lot of money or go to another team. My money is on him going to another team and fading out as a backup somewhere, but I'm just an idiot on a message board. The risk, of course, is that we start to wander the QB desert like so many teams we used to ridicule.

Play the rooks.
Like everyone else has been saying, let's see what Pop, Boutte, Keion, Mapu, Sow, Mafi, etc have to offer and figure out who we're keeping and who is sent packing. Injury luck is forcing our hand at the WR position, where I have some hope that we've got something with Pop and Boutte. I guess it's also a good time to evaluate TT and figure out if he is going to be worth keeping around. His trajectory reminds me too much of Tate, Dobson, and all the other WRs that came with promise and left with a whisper.

Play with OL Combinations/Figure out Brown
It seems like there are some ways to make this line actually play well, if the Buffalo game is anything to go by. I have complicated feelings on Brown. He grades out highly and really seems to make some good plays. At the same time, there are clips circulating around showing him making bizarrely low effort plays. I can see why some people hate him, and why others like him. He's probably one of the most divisive OL guys we've had in a while.

Figure out what's working on defense/plan for the future
I'm not as down on the D as many here are. They are often given short fields to defend, spend considerable time on the field, and the injuries haven't really helped, especially in the secondary. We have an abundance of edge rushers, with some elite talent, some promising talent, and some egnimatic talent. I am super curious about what Keion can be, and Barmore is really starting to find his groove. With a healthy secondary, this could be a defense to build around.

The elephant in the room/BB
Honestly, I have no ****ing idea what should be done here. I guess, as a fan, I'll just soak in watching him patrol the sidelines. Whenever it is he goes, we will miss him. Like it or not, accept it or not, he played a large role in the success of this team over two decades. It'll be weird, one day, to look at the sideline and see a Harbaugh or whoever standing over there.

I think it is more important to figure out how Onwenu fits. Unsure why the coaches are adamant about him at RG when he is pretty solid at RT and even LT too.

I would settle on Onwenu in one spot...and make plans to extend him by offering him a top of market contract even right now before FA in March. If Onwenu is a RT...then Sow is our RG. If Onwenu is a LT...we need to flip Brown to RT... basically figure out where Onwenu belongs on the line and go from there.

Then from there...I determine if Cole Strange is the LG of the future....I think he is...at least while he is still on a rookie deal (3rd year in 2024, but we have a 5th year option with him because he was a first round pick).

Then from there I see what's up with Dave Andrews...he can have the center job as long as he wants, but he enters the final year of his contract in 2024.

If we lock in Onwenu, Strange, and Andrews for 2024...then we deal with Trent Brown. He carries a 12M cap number for the 2023 season....unsure what kind of contract we could offer him that would be viewed as competitive. He is a LT after all....and those don't grow on trees.... he is also only 30...he probably has 3-4 more good years left in him.

That's how I would do it...Onwenu-->Strange-->Andrews-->Brown then the rookies (Sow, Mafi, and/or J.Andrews)

 

[TheRainMaker]

This is where it gets tricky with the guys flaming out elsewhere like Trey Flowers and Jamie Collins. Is it that they're not really as good as the other teams thought or is it that they misjudged how those guys would work in their respective systems? Deion Branch is a perfect example. He fit better in our system than he did Seattle's and basically washed out there but I fully believe we could have won the Super Bowl with him on the roster. Is it better to "overpay" for one of your own guys if he truly works and is productive for you or is it better to let him walk and potentially have a hole I your roster?

I think it's more along the lines of they just weren't that good and were a product of Bill or Tom. Bill had rare misfires as Chandler Jones got better when he left. Both Akiem Hicks (massive misfire) and Joe Thuney made up their minds and chose different teams after Bill came in too late. Aside from that, Bill pretty much signed the guys who really deserved it. The real problem was there was no plan to replace them.

In terms of Branch and Givens, they both should've been re-signed long before they became FA or held out (Branch) as they were very important to Tom. Trey Flowers was clearly a product of Bill and Collins was a one year wonder.

What blue chippers do we have on this team? A very small sample size but Christian Gonzalez?

In terms of draft picks, nobody. We can't put Gonzalez in that category yet after only 4 games.

Judon is the Pats only blue chip player.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Lets just see this offense improve. look more like it did in 2021, or play like they did against philly and buffalo this year more consistently. See douglas continue to impress and at least one of reagor, thornton, or boutte break out in the 2nd half and make themselves a roster lock for 2024. Im not ready to give up on juju either, that hit was insane last week and he used to be a ram with Pittsburgh. Was looking forward to him and zeke bringing toughness to the offense but only zeke has made an impact. Feel like juju could still have a role here if he’s ever back to normal. And hopefully see sow really establish himself as our rg of the future. Hopefully pharaoh stays efficient and is part of our te room as well.

Record really doesn’t mean a ton to me from here. The team was built to win games with the defense and that got thrown out when judon and Gonzalez went down. Just give us something offensively that we can build off of with some upgrades next year to go with that defense at full strength.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

In terms of Branch and Givens, they both should've been re-signed long before they became FA or held out (Branch) as they were very important to Tom. Trey Flowers was clearly a product of Bill and Collins was a one year wonder.

I think giving Amendola the finger after 2017 was the worst of them all. This was coming after Amendola’s insane AFCCG versus Jacksonville and Super Bowl versus Philadelphia.

It gets overlooked, but the Patriots didn’t have Edelman in that postseason, lost Cooks in the first quarter of the SB, and still lit up the Eagles for what should have been their offense’s crowning moment.

Amendola: 11 targets, 8 receptions, 152 yards ! in SB52. A better performance than Edelman’s MVP winner a year later.

That was after 9 targets, 7 receptions, 84 yards, 2 TDs (both 4th quarter) ! in a game where Gronk was concussed and Brady’s hand was gashed against a loaded Jacksonville defense.

So after the season they let Cooks walk to save money, and Belichick still lowballs Amendola. Wouldn’t match a very reasonable offer from Miami for 2/12 (yes, you read that correctly.). In fact, not only wouldn’t Belichick match, he wasn’t close

Amendola: Patriots' offer wasn't close to others

After taking a pay cut three times to remain with the Patriots, wide receiver Danny Amendola told ESPN's Mike Reiss on Friday that he signed with the Miami Dolphins this offseason after realizing Bill Belichick's contract offer wouldn't come close.

www.espn.com

Amendola had 97 receptions in 2019, two years later. He had plenty left in the tank.

 

[n6249c]

What blue chippers do we have on this team? A very small sample size but Christian Gonzalez?

Judon. Trent Brown.

 

[Pats1971]

I think giving Amendola the finger after 2017 was the worst of them all. This was coming after Amendola’s insane AFCCG versus Jacksonville and Super Bowl versus Philadelphia.

It gets overlooked, but the Patriots didn’t have Edelman in that postseason, lost Cooks in the first quarter of the SB, and still lit up the Eagles for what should have been their offense’s crowning moment.

Amendola: 11 targets, 8 receptions, 152 yards ! in SB52. A better performance than Edelman’s MVP winner a year later.

That was after 9 targets, 7 receptions, 84 yards, 2 TDs (both 4th quarter) ! in a game where Gronk was concussed and Brady’s hand was gashed against a loaded Jacksonville defense.

So after the season they let Cooks walk to save money, and Belichick still lowballs Amendola. Wouldn’t match a very reasonable offer from Miami for 2/12 (yes, you read that correctly.). In fact, not only wouldn’t Belichick match, he wasn’t close

Amendola: Patriots' offer wasn't close to others

After taking a pay cut three times to remain with the Patriots, wide receiver Danny Amendola told ESPN's Mike Reiss on Friday that he signed with the Miami Dolphins this offseason after realizing Bill Belichick's contract offer wouldn't come close.

www.espn.com

Amendola had 97 receptions in 2019, two years later. He had plenty left in the tank.

View attachment 54297

Pats didnt have Gronk when they came back against Atlanta. As long as #12 was Qb you had a chance.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Pats didnt have Gronk when they came back against Atlanta. As long as #12 was Qb you had a chance.

True but not particularly relevant. With TB12 and better receivers, you have a greater chance.

 

[n6249c]

We must understand that a concussion, and recovery from a concussion, isn't an injury.

Are you being sarcastic? Or really that ignorant and perverse? I’d assumed sarcasm, but these days you can never tell.

 

[mgteich]

Are you being sarcastic? Or really that ignorant and perverse? I’d assumed sarcasm, but these days you can never tell.

yes, sarcasm, responding to posts that keep on saying that juju isn't injured

 

[n6249c]

I just don't understand the constant replacing. When guys like Meyers, Dugger, Onwenu, Uche, and Thuney are coming up for new contracts we need to stop letting them all walk (yes I know Dugger, Onwenu and Uche haven't walked yet). If we're constantly plugging holes at spots we actually drafted well at then why not retain them so we can't draft/sign/trade for other needs? We don't need Juju if we pay Meyers. We don't need to draft Cole Strange if we paid Thuney. We don't need to draft Mapu or whomever we sign in March to potentially replace Dugger. Etc. I know you can't sign everyone but we need to re-sign more of these homegrown guys so we have a foundation to build on instead of constantly chasing holes in the roster every March.

I’m with you on that.

It‘s the same argument I was making about re-signing Uche and Onwenu et al instead of trading them for draft picks. The replacements drafted might be cheaper but they‘re not as skilled until they have a few years development, plus there’s the risk they won’t develop as foreseen/hoped. Exhibit A: Mac Jones.

I’d favor keeping all of Dugger, Onwenu, and Uche, unless some other team goes crazy throwing much more than top of the market money at any of them.

I think this is an area where Bill’s undergrad degree works against him. At contract renewal time he tends to undervalue players that were drafted and developed in his system, relative to the overall NFL market. Flip side of that, he tends to overvalue the net present value of newly drafted rookies about to be developed in his system, by not discounting sufficiently for risk. Some of it may be overestimating the value and expected results of coaching within the Patriots system. For example, expecting the 2023 OL rookies to be developed as well as they would be if Scar were still here. So he doesn’t want to pay as much to retain homegrown talent as the rest of the league will pay to steal it away from him. There may also be a willingness by other teams to pay a premium for talent developed under Belichick, that he’s not willing to pay because he expects he can develop the next crop as well. That’s where having his staff poached (or retire, e.g. Scar) hurts, as it diminished the ability to develop as well.
TL;DR: Pats need to do better at paying enough to re-sign homegrown talent.

 

[Boomer B]

I just don't understand the constant replacing. When guys like Meyers, Dugger, Onwenu, Uche, and Thuney are coming up for new contracts we need to stop letting them all walk (yes I know Dugger, Onwenu and Uche haven't walked yet). If we're constantly plugging holes at spots we actually drafted well at then why not retain them so we can't draft/sign/trade for other needs? We don't need Juju if we pay Meyers. We don't need to draft Cole Strange if we paid Thuney. We don't need to draft Mapu or whomever we sign in March to potentially replace Dugger. Etc. I know you can't sign everyone but we need to re-sign more of these homegrown guys so we have a foundation to build on instead of constantly chasing holes in the roster every March.

Winner winner chicken dinner

Instead of locking Dugger up we waste a high draft pick on Mapu which we could have used on someone like Dawand Jones at a position of need.