Who do we draft #3 overall ?

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I have a great deal of respect for your views on the draft BGC, but I definitely believe Daniels is in that mix, and they would be making a fatal error to take a receiver when their QB’s are the worst in Pro football, and I am including the CFL. You can get OL in the 2nd half of the 1st TD., and WR’s through the first 2days, but there are only 3 QB’s in this draft that will help them compete in the AFC, and all 3 will be gone in the first 4 picks.

We disagree on the QB's. It sounds like you're a big fan of Daniels. I've liked him since he was throwing to guys like Aiyuk and Ricky Pearsall. They actually had a squad at one point but couldn't put it together.
Anyway I'm a big fan but 3rd overall is too rich for me. Older prospect who really needed a perfect situation to breakout. Sure he'll be surrounded by NFL players but that's not exactly what you want to see from your 3rd overall pick. You made reference to Joe Burrow but JB was a much more versatile passer that wasn't limited except for an average arm. Burrow was much better going through his progressions, layering passes, working the mof, PA etc ..

I like him but 3rd overall is legend, elite prospect territory. Guys you think could make a run at the HOF. That's not JD.

As far as who is on our board. Remember this is a defacto Pack front office so LT is in the convo too.

I understand your passion for getting a QB
I watched a clip on Jeremiah last night
He is very concerned that Daniels did not throw to the middle of the field. Also he said he could drop a long pass in a bucket but was not as accurate on short and intermediate passes.
He stated that maybe he can get better in those areas. But those 2 areas are a must in the NFL

I wrote this last week. I could get behind Daniels for sure but if I'm at 3 I'm probably looking for a big package. Not Lamar but maybe he ends up better who knows? I think it's interesting that both are different though and people want to compare them.

Jackson ran a pro system at 19. Was a much better anticipatory passer esp MOF which he's one of the top tier guys in the NFL. Much better at avoiding big shots.

Yea I like JD but 3 mighy be too rich.

Anyway I really like Daniels. Going back to his ASU days he tossed beautiful deep passes. He's very good targeting the boundary in general for fades, go etc. Good accuracy obviously and has an arm. Arm isnt special but its more than good enough. Velocity could improve but hes got enough strength. Throws away from the leverage, protects his ball but gives his guy a chance to make a play.
His rushing abilities are outstanding. He's not Lamar or AR15 but he's electric. Speed quickness vision in the open field. He leaves his feet too easy and takes too many big hits but he's a nightmare for defenses. You almost have to play some type of 2hi/shell over the top but that'll inevitably leave lanes for him to rush. Balty never accomplished it bc they always end up hurt but pair him with a top tier back (Robinson, Stevenson etc) and "good luck" (Marco from Taken voice) He led power 5 in yards per rush and pass. So between his deep ball and rushing attack
he's already quite the handful in terms of how you would want to prepare for him.
Very good on the move. Eyes stay down field. Accurate comfortable delivery doesn't change. Isn't a one read guy. Bright spot for sure.
He wasn't comfortable in PA early on in his career and although he's improved it stands out from from time to time. MOF/short area/intermediate areas are hit or miss. He's not avoiding them but not really comfortable. Occasionally his delivery looks disjointed. He's not comfortable digesting concepts in the mof, letting them develop, deliver with proper time. Longer he has to go from read to read the more likely the ball is to be incomplete.

 

[Kdo5]

I’m hoping it’s Daniel’s, but I would take any one of them.

I like Daniel’s dual threat capabilities, athleticism and leadership qualities. He has a solid arm too and hopefully he can put on a few pounds.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

We disagree on the QB's. It sounds like you're a big fan of Daniels. I've liked him since he was throwing to guys like Aiyuk and Ricky Pearsall. They actually had a squad at one point but couldn't put it together.
Anyway I'm a big fan but 3rd overall is too rich for me. Older prospect who really needed a perfect situation to breakout. Sure he'll be surrounded by NFL players but that's not exactly what you want to see from your 3rd overall pick. You made reference to Joe Burrow but JB was a much more versatile passer that wasn't limited except for an average arm. Burrow was much better going through his progressions, layering passes, working the mof, PA etc ..

I like him but 3rd overall is legend, elite prospect territory. Guys you think could make a run at the HOF. That's not JD.

As far as who is on our board. Remember this is a defacto Pack front office so LT is in the convo too.

I wrote this last week. I could get behind Daniels for sure but if I'm at 3 I'm probably looking for a big package. Not Lamar but maybe he ends up better who knows? I think it's interesting that both are different though and people want to compare them.

Jackson ran a pro system at 19. Was a much better anticipatory passer esp MOF which he's one of the top tier guys in the NFL. Much better at avoiding big shots.

Yea I like JD but 3 mighy be too rich.

Anyway I really like Daniels. Going back to his ASU days he tossed beautiful deep passes. He's very good targeting the boundary in general for fades, go etc. Good accuracy obviously and has an arm. Arm isnt special but its more than good enough. Velocity could improve but hes got enough strength. Throws away from the leverage, protects his ball but gives his guy a chance to make a play.
His rushing abilities are outstanding. He's not Lamar or AR15 but he's electric. Speed quickness vision in the open field. He leaves his feet too easy and takes too many big hits but he's a nightmare for defenses. You almost have to play some type of 2hi/shell over the top but that'll inevitably leave lanes for him to rush. Balty never accomplished it bc they always end up hurt but pair him with a top tier back (Robinson, Stevenson etc) and "good luck" (Marco from Taken voice) He led power 5 in yards per rush and pass. So between his deep ball and rushing attack
he's already quite the handful in terms of how you would want to prepare for him.
Very good on the move. Eyes stay down field. Accurate comfortable delivery doesn't change. Isn't a one read guy. Bright spot for sure.
He wasn't comfortable in PA early on in his career and although he's improved it stands out from from time to time. MOF/short area/intermediate areas are hit or miss. He's not avoiding them but not really comfortable. Occasionally his delivery looks disjointed. He's not comfortable digesting concepts in the mof, letting them develop, deliver with proper time. Longer he has to go from read to read the more likely the ball is to be incomplete.

Thanks BGC. You are spot on from the many blog’s I have watched about Daniels
Here is one of them. Which is exactly what you just stated

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Here is Jeremiah’s scouting report for
Jayden Daniels
LSU · QB · Senior
Daniels is a tall/lean quarterback with exceptional accuracy, decision-making and speed. He is very poised and comfortable in the pocket. He likes to use a rhythm bounce at the top of his drop before settling his feet into the ground and smoothly transferring his weight to throw. He has an extremely quick release and beautiful throwing motion. He throws with anticipation, touch and accuracy. He flashes the ability to manipulate safeties with his eyes to create separation downfield. When he gets pressured, he doesn’t hesitate to explode out of the pocket. He has elite suddenness. He is more of a linear/speed runner than a break-down/make-you-miss type of ball-carrier. He needs to do a better job of protecting himself, though, as he took some huge hits in the games I studied. Overall, Daniels took a massive leap in 2023 and now offers both a high floor and ceiling.

Just posted to BSG above post
This was not the Jeremiah blog I was talking about
Still looking. This is what most are saying
The Good and Bad

 

[Ivan]

Thanks BGC. You are spot on from the many blog’s I have watched about Daniels
Here is one of them. Which is exactly what you just stated

Appreciate the evaluation BGC, but I disagree on the “ perfect situation” statement. He played with a bad defense and behind a bad OL, in the best Conference n college football, and he had to keep them in games and come from behind regularly, which speaks to his in game character, which is really important to me. He’s not a front runner who hasn’t been tested, he’s been put in tough situations and shined. He also outplayed every QB in this draft last season. so in terms of production he’s the best QB in this draft.

As far as 3 being too high I think that has to be related to both his floor and his ceiling, especially the latter, and at least according to Jeremiah he has both a high floor and a high ceiling. It would be hypocritical of me to say that doesn’t apply to QB, because I apply it to Nix, Penix, McCarthy, and the rest of the QB’s in this draft, none are worth the #3. The difference is that Daniels is in the top tier of QB’s, and it is by far their greatest need, and they are guaranteed to get one of those 3 simply by just taking their pick, whereas if they pass on them, and then have to move up to get one next year it’s going to cost them multiple 1st rounders to do so. So is it a risk? Yes, but so is taking any QB, and given what any of these 3 could become with the right coaching and work ethic it’s a risk I’m willing to take, as I don’t think there is any other player in this draft with a higher ceiling, other than possibly Williams. And while I understand that Harrison is a very good prospect, he’s not Randy Moss, he’s not going to be breaking huge YAC plays, and if people are going to label him as generational then he needs to be more than a great possession receiver.

As I have said before I greatly value your evaluations, and I respect your opinion, but if I’m the one making this decision, which by all rights, and we all agree I should be, I’m taking a QB at 3, and I would love it to be Daniel’s. Being great means taking some chances, and his upside is so high that it’s a chance to be a true contender, and not wallowing in the muck that is every team without one.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Appreciate the evaluation BGC, but I disagree on the “ perfect situation” statement. He played with a bad defense and behind a bad OL, in the best Conference n college football, and he had to keep them in games and come from behind regularly, which speaks to his in game character, which is really important to me. He’s not a front runner who hasn’t been tested, he’s been put in tough situations and shined. He also outplayed every QB in this draft last season. so in terms of production he’s the best QB in this draft.

As far as 3 being too high I think that has to be related to both his floor and his ceiling, especially the latter, and at least according to Jeremiah he has both a high floor and a high ceiling. It would be hypocritical of me to say that doesn’t apply to QB, because I apply it to Nix, Penix, McCarthy, and the rest of the QB’s in this draft, none are worth the #3. The difference is that Daniels is in the top tier of QB’s, and it is by far their greatest need, and they are guaranteed to get one of those 3 simply by just taking their pick, whereas if they pass on them, and then have to move up to get one next year it’s going to cost them multiple 1st rounders to do so. So is it a risk? Yes, but so is taking any QB, and given what any of these 3 could become with the right coaching and work ethic it’s a risk I’m willing to take, as I don’t think there is any other player in this draft with a higher ceiling, other than possibly Williams. And while I understand that Harrison is a very good prospect, he’s not Randy Moss, he’s not going to be breaking huge YAC plays, and if people are going to label him as generational then he needs to be more than a great possession receiver.

As I have said before I greatly value your evaluations, and I respect your opinion, but if I’m the one making this decision, which by all rights, and we all agree I should be, I’m taking a QB at 3, and I would love it to be Daniel’s. Being great means taking some chances, and his upside is so high that it’s a chance to be a true contender, and not wallowing in the muck that is every team without one.

I respect that.
I am warming to taking Daniels at 3 (while we finally have a chance at (one of the Top tier QB’s in the draft). Bring in Brissett as a bridge while Daniels get’s acclimated. Pick up a top rated WR and TE in FA with some OL depth. Pick a Top rated OT in 2nd and WR or OL in 3rd. This is the quickest way to rebuild, only if Daniels pans out. If you don’t get your QB when you have a chance you could rebuild everything else but always in the hunt for a QB to make the rebuild work. It is a gamble because the QB position has a high rate of failure in the draft. If you don’t take a chance then the MOST important position then how else do you fill it. Overpaying for a Good FA QB. All the great ones do not come available. Or selling the farm in the future to draft a top tier QB. Which would be a gamble while selling the farm while we have that same chance now with our own pick.
Saying all this. You have to be sure on him with all the resources teams have over us arm chair GM’s. A large over reach spells disaster. Which would put the rebuild back further. When you could have strengthened the other important positions. Daniels has some concerns. Mostly not using middle of field, velocity on his throws, and small frame.. Which would affect being an NFL QB especially in windy frigid weather. Concerning but could be corrected with great NFL training and nutrition facilities. As well as better coaching
Bring on the Combine and Pro Days and team interviews.
BGC brings up valid points as well as yourself.
I am digging in deaper on both stances.
I'm glad the GM position is not filled. I’m getting it and hiring you both, plus Venecol since he read J Jones mind

 

[VrabelJr]

This just in: people paid to talk about the draft are very excited about current year's draft.

The "experts" get it wrong all the time.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If Harrison is available at 3, we should take him. If Daniels is available at 3, but Harrison is not, we should use daniels to get the best possible trade down we can get. But it is imperative, we stay as far away from Daniels as possible!!!!

 

[NashuaPats]

Appreciate the evaluation BGC, but I disagree on the “ perfect situation” statement. He played with a bad defense and behind a bad OL, in the best Conference n college football, and he had to keep them in games and come from behind regularly, which speaks to his in game character, which is really important to me. He’s not a front runner who hasn’t been tested, he’s been put in tough situations and shined. He also outplayed every QB in this draft last season. so in terms of production he’s the best QB in this draft.

As far as 3 being too high I think that has to be related to both his floor and his ceiling, especially the latter, and at least according to Jeremiah he has both a high floor and a high ceiling. It would be hypocritical of me to say that doesn’t apply to QB, because I apply it to Nix, Penix, McCarthy, and the rest of the QB’s in this draft, none are worth the #3. The difference is that Daniels is in the top tier of QB’s, and it is by far their greatest need, and they are guaranteed to get one of those 3 simply by just taking their pick, whereas if they pass on them, and then have to move up to get one next year it’s going to cost them multiple 1st rounders to do so. So is it a risk? Yes, but so is taking any QB, and given what any of these 3 could become with the right coaching and work ethic it’s a risk I’m willing to take, as I don’t think there is any other player in this draft with a higher ceiling, other than possibly Williams. And while I understand that Harrison is a very good prospect, he’s not Randy Moss, he’s not going to be breaking huge YAC plays, and if people are going to label him as generational then he needs to be more than a great possession receiver.

As I have said before I greatly value your evaluations, and I respect your opinion, but if I’m the one making this decision, which by all rights, and we all agree I should be, I’m taking a QB at 3, and I would love it to be Daniel’s. Being great means taking some chances, and his upside is so high that it’s a chance to be a true contender, and not wallowing in the muck that is every team without one.

I don’t know why you say that LSU had a bad offensive line. They were named one of the top four OLs in the country along with Washington, Oregon, and Georgia. Washington won the award.

JMA Announces 2023 Finalists — Joe Moore Award

joemooreaward.com

A little more about them.

Offensive Line Among Joe Moore Award Finalists

lsusports.net

 

[Ivan]

I don’t know why you say that LSU had a bad offensive line. They were named one of the top four OLs in the country along with Washington, Oregon, and Georgia. Washington won the award.

JMA Announces 2023 Finalists — Joe Moore Award

joemooreaward.com

A little more about them.

Offensive Line Among Joe Moore Award Finalists

lsusports.net

I say it because Jeremiah, Brooks, and Kiper all said it on their podcasts, and their OL must all be staying school because I haven’t seen even one of their OL listed in a 3 rd mock. You could be right, but that’s the only thing I have seen about them being good so far.

 

[Ivan]

I respect that.
I am warming to taking Daniels at 3 (while we finally have a chance at (one of the Top tier QB’s in the draft). Bring in Brissett as a bridge while Daniels get’s acclimated. Pick up a top rated WR and TE in FA with some OL depth. Pick a Top rated OT in 2nd and WR or OL in 3rd. This is the quickest way to rebuild, only if Daniels pans out. If you don’t get your QB when you have a chance you could rebuild everything else but always in the hunt for a QB to make the rebuild work. It is a gamble because the QB position has a high rate of failure in the draft. If you don’t take a chance then the MOST important position then how else do you fill it. Overpaying for a Good FA QB. All the great ones do not come available. Or selling the farm in the future to draft a top tier QB. Which would be a gamble while selling the farm while we have that same chance now with our own pick.
Saying all this. You have to be sure on him with all the resources teams have over us arm chair GM’s. A large over reach spells disaster. Which would put the rebuild back further. When you could have strengthened the other important positions. Daniels has some concerns. Mostly not using middle of field, velocity on his throws, and small frame.. Which would affect being an NFL QB especially in windy frigid weather. Concerning but could be corrected with great NFL training and nutrition facilities. As well as better coaching
Bring on the Combine and Pro Days and team interviews.
BGC brings up valid points as well as yourself.
I am digging in deaper on both stances.
I'm glad the GM position is not filled. I’m getting it and hiring you both, plus Venecol since he read J Jones mind

Appreciate the response Busta. I don’t see Daniels a reach because the consensus has him top 3,,which is where they would be taking him. And they don’t have to move up to get their QB , which costs multiple 1st rounders. I wouldn’t take Nix, Oenix, or McCarthy in the top 3 because I don’t think any of them have the ceiling that you want in a top 5 pick. You want that pick to be a potential all pro, and I don’t think the others have that upside.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Appreciate the response Busta. I don’t see Daniels a reach because the consensus has him top 3,,which is where they would be taking him. And they don’t have to move up to get their QB , which costs multiple 1st rounders. I wouldn’t take Nix, Oenix, or McCarthy in the top 3 because I don’t think any of them have the ceiling that you want in a top 5 pick. You want that pick to be a potential all pro, and I don’t think the others have that upside.

Definately not Nix or Penix
Rattler in the 3rd intriques me
I have been watching a lot of material on MCCarthy. I was not sold on him at first mostly because of his numbers. That is not a good comp. If you look at some of the throws he makes in all parts of the field. You start to think. He has a better arm than Daniels. He played against great competition. Made some huge throws in big games. Low turnover rate. Above average wheels.
He also needs to add weight.
Right now Daniels is the more exciting prospect and rated higher by pundits
After the Combine and Pro Days we will know more
I will probably change my mind multiple times. Just keeping my eyes open
Until then Daniels scares me but I like him
McCarthy scares me but I like him
With the latter we will get more draft Capitol incase both are busts but you want to give 1 of the Top rated QB’s a chance

 

[Headcase]

Appreciate the response Busta. I don’t see Daniels a reach because the consensus has him top 3,,which is where they would be taking him. And they don’t have to move up to get their QB , which costs multiple 1st rounders. I wouldn’t take Nix, Oenix, or McCarthy in the top 3 because I don’t think any of them have the ceiling that you want in a top 5 pick. You want that pick to be a potential all pro, and I don’t think the others have that upside.

For what it is worth, he is going 3rd in consensus Mocks, not on consensus Big Boards

 

[Jim Beankie]

Can you imagine drafting Megatron at #2, a Tackle at #17 the next year, the #1 overall in Stafford the next, then Suh at #2 right after and still not win a playoff game until ~15 years later.

That's the amazing thing. You can pick future HoFers and SB winning QBs but still end up with the same results or worse than Mac's rookie season.

Ugh... I know QB and OL are more important, and picking that or smartly trading down for more picks would be better... but my inner Al Davis is irrationally telling me to pick MHJr. The guy's been trained/coached by a HoF WR his entire life (and will continue to get pointers)... who played for the Colts which would be a nice FU.

Plus my favorite boxer of all time's name is Marvin... Also my favorite denizen of a red planet.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I say it because Jeremiah, Brooks, and Kiper all said it on their podcasts, and their OL must all be staying school because I haven’t seen even one of their OL listed in a 3 rd mock. You could be right, but that’s the only thing I have seen about them being good so far.

Yea they're all way off there. LSU came the year as a top 8-10 group and finished right around there. They were one of the better pass blocking groups in the country. A lot of underclassmen.

Idk what they're thinking but be careful who you listen to. At worst they were a top 12-15 group.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Ugh... I know QB and OL are more important,

QB, yes but I think WR1 > OT1 in 2024.

 

[thecore762]

Get MHJr! You need him! He IS the best player in this draft and by far the best WR coming out of college over the past decade. The guy will make any QBs look good.
This QB class is deep and you will find value in the 2nd round.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Get MHJr! You need him! He IS the best player in this draft and by far the best WR coming out of college over the past decade. The guy will make any QBs look good.
This QB class is deep and you will find value in the 2nd round.

He is definitely a talent
Way more talent in the 2nd round at WR than QB

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

Yea they're all way off there. LSU came the year as a top 8-10 group and finished right around there. They were one of the better pass blocking groups in the country. A lot of underclassmen.

Idk what they're thinking but be careful who you listen to. At worst they were a top 12-15 group.

They had a very good OLine
From LSU Wire

“LSU's offensive line was among the sport's best in 2023. The unit was one of 12 semifinalists for the Joe Moore Award, given annually to the best offensive line in the country. The Tigers led the country in offensive line yards and ranked 12th among Power Five teams in pass-blocking efficiency.”

 

[Ivan]

Yea they're all way off there. LSU came the year as a top 8-10 group and finished right around there. They were one of the better pass blocking groups in the country. A lot of underclassmen.

Idk what they're thinking but be careful who you listen to. At worst they were a top 12-15 group.

I give Jeremiah and Mike Renner the most respect for their draft takes. There are a million sites out there so it’s hard to know who knows what they are talking about and who doesn’t. Either way he was still having to play with a bad defense, and he showed the character you want in your QB to keep them in those games. As I have said numerous times I’m fine with them taking any of the top 3 QB’s, because they each have the ceiling to become great if they get the right coaching and put in the work, and imo that’s what you are looking for in a pick that high. Once you get past those three none of the rest are worth that high of a pick. And if you don’t get your QB there you either have to overpay someone else’s reject, hope like hell that later pick miraculously pans out, or give up multiple first rounders in a future draft to move up and try to get your franchise QB. And imo there is no way they are going to be able to compete against the best teams in the AFC without a franchise QB. Even if you get one it’s still going to be tough, because they are all pretty young, and won’t be going anywhere else for a long time. They are going to have to hit on a franchise QB and build a great team around them to win a Lombardi any time in the near future.